Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., is swamping her Republican challenger, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, in the crucial fundraising battle in Missouri — but it might not make a difference.
McCaskill raised $4.3 in the second quarter, closing the period with $12.2 million in the bank; Hawley raised just $1.87 million, finishing with a paltry $3 million to spend on his Senate campaign. Republican insiders, though uncomfortable with McCaskill’s 4-1 edge in cash on hand, are confident that the liberal incumbent is out of step with a state that has become reliably red in statewide contests and is generally satisfied with President Trump.
Hawley’s ace, Republicans say, is the upcoming debate over Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s nominee to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Anthony Kennedy.
The issue could define the race — and it favors Hawley. His first campaign ad, which began airing this week, attempts to put McCaskill on the defensive as the Kavanaugh confirmation vote, expected this fall before the midterm elections, approaches. Last year, McCaskill opposed Trump’s first nominee to the Supreme Court, now-Justice Neil Gorsuch.
“It’s a problem that Claire keeps raising so much money. She is going to swamp Josh on the air in August to November. But it probably won’t matter. The Supreme Court thing will be huge for him,” a Missouri Republican insider said Wednesday.
Added a second GOP strategist from Missouri: “It’s a problem, but a manageable one.”
In part, the Republicans aren’t panicking because they expect plenty of outside money to, via super PACs and political nonprofit organizations, invest in Missouri and help bring financial parity to the contest. Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has placed an initial fall advertising buy in Missouri of $10.5 million.
Missouri Republicans also figure that the Republican National Committee will spend heavily in the state as a part of its midterm elections strategy for protecting the GOP’s congressional majorities.
The Democrats acknowledge McCaskill is in a tough race but sound optimistic about her prospects. Last month, Senate Majority PAC, the super PAC tied to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., publicized an internal public opinion poll that showed the incumbent up 6 percentage points over Hawley. The group included Missouri in its first set of fall television reservations.
“Claire continues to lead this race because Missouri voters trust her to fight for them,” SMP spokesman Chris Hayden said in a statement back in June.
