INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — Late Monday, Ted Cruz announced he will be here in Indiana for primary night. It’s a change from recent practice. The night Cruz lost the New York primary on April 19, he had already moved on to Philadelphia for what he called a Pennsylvania kickoff event. A week later, April 26, the night Cruz lost primaries in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Connecticut, Delaware and Rhode Island, he had moved on to a rally in the “Hoosier Gym” in Knightstown, Ind.
The goal was misdirection: Don’t look at the five primaries I’m losing, look at the one I might win next week.
Now, next week has come, and Cruz will face Indiana’s verdict in Indiana.
Cruz, behind in the Indiana polls, coming off a string of losses, and mathematically eliminated from winning enough delegates to clinch the Republican nomination before the convention, seemed mindful of the weight of the occasion at his final election-eve event, in a not-filled room at the Indiana state fairgrounds in Indianapolis. Near the end of his speech, Cruz had what might qualify as a pensive moment, when he reflected on a year of campaigning.
“This has been a strange and long journey,” Cruz said. After a pause, he added, “It hasn’t been boring.”
The obvious suggestion was that the journey might be nearing an end. And indeed, Cruz told the crowd that Indiana will make a decision that will affect the whole country. “I could not be more encouraged that this primary is coming down to the Midwestern common sense, to the good judgment of Hoosiers,” Cruz said.
The situation doesn’t look promising for Cruz. Although he called the race “effectively tied,” an NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll released Sunday showed Cruz trailing Donald Trump by 15 points. Other surveys showed Trump with smaller, but still substantial leads. If, after his recent losses, Cruz cannot pull Indiana out of the fire, he is in big trouble.
“If Trump wins — if the NBC-Wall Street Journal-Marist poll is correct, and he wins, the race is effectively over,” GOP strategist Karl Rove said on Fox Business Monday morning. If Cruz does lose, the danger is that Rove’s assessment will quickly solidify into conventional wisdom, and Cruz will have to fight the assumption that the race is over.
A couple of hours earlier, just 12 miles up the road, Trump held his own election-eve rally in Carmel. He filled the 1,600-seat Palladium at the Center for Performing Arts — a slightly non-Trumpish venue designed for classical music concerts. It was a happy scene, with enthusiastic voters and a super-confident candidate.
“Honestly, if we win Indiana, it’s over,” Trump told the crowd. “They’re finished. They’re gone. And if we don’t, I’ll win it next week or the week after or the week after. It’s fine.”
Trump told supporters not to worry about all the reports they hear of Cruz poaching delegates in states where Trump has won the primary. It won’t matter, Trump said, because he’ll win the nomination on the first ballot. There won’t be a second ballot, Trump predicted, and thus no defecting delegates.
In Trump’s telling, Cruz was more of a nuisance, or a joke, than anything. “He set a record,” Trump said of Cruz: “First candidate in the history of this country, who has no path to victory, who can’t win — and he picked a vice presidential candidate.” The crowd laughed.
Trump pointed to a new Rasmussen poll showing him with a slight national lead over Hillary Clinton — a change from dozens of national polls showing Clinton beating Trump. After winning in Indiana, Trump said, he’ll be ready to move on to the general election. “Now, I’m going to start focusing on Hillary,” he said. “That’s going to be so easy. It’s going to be so great.”
Trump’s crowd shared his confidence. Not only were his supporters sure Trump would win Indiana, they were sure he can win in November, too. After the speech, I asked people what they thought of the polls, Rasmussen aside, showing Clinton ahead Trump.
“I think it’s all lies,” said Mark Miller, of Fishers, who noted that he knows non-Republicans attracted by Trump’s message. “I think he can beat Hillary. I most definitely think he can.”
“I think he’ll win big,” said Lon Brown, of Carmel. “The only problem he’s had are all the negative Republicans who are opposing him. If he had the support of the whole party, it’d be like a tsunami.”
“He’s going to go all the way,” said Sharon Graham, of Noblesville. “I just believe the time is now for him.”
