As 10 Democratic presidential candidates take the stage in Miami for the first primary debate of the 2020 cycle Wednesday, here are 10 things to watch out for:
1. Swipes at Joe Biden
The former vice president has dominated primary polls since before he officially announced his campaign, and that must change if any of the 10 candidates on Wednesday’s debate stage stand a chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Although contenders may not directly attack the front-runner, who will appear in Thursday’s 10-candidate debate, they could take veiled jabs at him.
For instance, several hopefuls have criticized the 1994 crime bill he helped write, pointing to mass incarceration and sentencing disparities.
2. How Elizabeth Warren takes the reins
Warren is the highest-polling candidate of the 10 contenders on stage Wednesday, having crept up in the polls and eating into Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders’ base of support as she proposes a plethora of liberal policies.
The Massachusetts senator can use the debate to show how she is a more palatable liberal than socialist Sanders and demonstrate how she would take on President Trump in the general election.
3. Beto O’Rourke trying to make a comeback
O’Rourke shot to stardom during his failed 2018 Texas Senate bid and raised an impressive $6.1 million in the first 24 hours of his presidential campaign. But since an early bump of enthusiasm, the energetic former congressman has dropped in the polls. He sits at 3.3% support in RealClearPolitics’ polling average, down from 9.5% in early April.
Critics say that O’Rourke is all talk and no substance. In the debates tonight, O’Rourke could assert himself as a serious candidate by touting his ideas on reforming the immigration system, expanding voting rights, and combating climate change.
4. Candidates seeking breakout moments
The debates are a chance for mid- and lower-tier candidates to stand out from the rest of the pack and avoid becoming a dreaded “also-ran” contender. With a witty remark, emotional moment, or energetic performance, hopefuls have a chance to propel themselves up in the polls, rake in donations, and be part of the conversation.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker and Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar, in particular, are notable candidates but have struggled to break past 3% in polling. A good debate performance could help them show why they should be mentioned alongside California Sen. Kamala Harris, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg, and Warren as serious candidates who could overtake Sanders or Biden.
5. Trump-baiting
The debate will be no shortage of disdain for Trump and his administration on the stage. But some criticisms of the president could serve to not only let voters know a candidate’s values, but capture Trump’s attention.
If president mentions a contender in a tweet, speech, or other remark, it gives their campaign legitimacy and attention, and will likely see their stock rise.
6. “Medicare for All” differences
Every Democratic candidate supports some form of universal health care, but disagreements about how to get there could create tension on stage.
While some back the Sanders-championed “Medicare for All” plan, a single-payer healthcare system that would eventually eliminate private insurance, other contenders endorse building Obamacare or creating a public buy-in option without making doing away with private insurance.
Hopefuls could be pushed on how far they are willing to go in challenging private insurance companies.
7. Focus on immigration
It is unlikely that the curtains will fall on the two-hour debate without the candidates being asked about immigration.
Contenders have used the Miami backdrop of the debates to conduct outreach with Latino and Hispanic Democrats in Florida, and to visit Homestead detention center, the nation’s largest facility housing detained immigrant children.
Castro and Warren have both said they support decriminalizing illegal border crossings, and the clock is running out for House Democrats to reach an asylum deal with the White House before Trump’s deadline to begin mass deportations.
8. De Blasio’s pitch
New York Mayor Bill de Blasio was a late entry into the crowded presidential field, and despite being well-known, polls indicate he is not well-liked. With headlines about his campaign launch openly speculating why de Blasio would dare to launch a White House bid, Wednesday’s debate is his chance to show what he brings to the table, even as protesters plan to descend on Miami.
9. No opening statements
Juggling 10 candidates on stage with time constraints and concerns about viewer retention, NBC News and its partners nixed opening statements and moderators will police responses so they are kept within 60-second sound bites.
While the impact of the format is minimized for Warren, O’Rourke, Booker, and de Blasio because of their national profiles, lesser-known contenders will likely use part of their first answers to introduce themselves to the country.
The way the hopefuls handle the questions under the bright lights and time pressures will also be telling of their preparation and experience ahead of the debates, as observers keenly watch for hits and misses to separate the crowded field.
10. Ratings game
Although the inevitable “wash-up” pieces filed by reporters on the ground will focus more on the candidates’ understanding of issues and their interactions with each other, pundits will be interested in gauging any repercussions for the race.
The first metric will be ratings to see how many eyeballs the events attracted, and NBC has staggered the programming so four of the top five contenders that were randomly grouped together will appear on the second night.
Polls will provide another data point as survey researchers probe likely voters for their reviews in order to ascertain whether any of the hopefuls had a post-debate bump in support.
