On Monday, I’ll review the questions asked and give the real answers.
1. Which team is more impacted by injuries? Probably Indianapolis. Just look at Friday’s injury report: nine are questionable and five of them didn’t practice that day. Their middle linebacker, Gary Brackett, is on that list; a couple receivers (Pierre Garcon, Anthony Gonzalez, Austin Collie) are as well. And they’re already thin in the secondary. The Redskins list everyone as questionable so you never know who really is; and the only player who is really questionable with an injury is Rocky McIntosh. The other question mark is Albert Haynesworth, but it obviously has nothing to do with an injury. However, it’s essentially the same thing because they don’t know if he’ll play. And if he doesn’t, it has an impact.
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2. Which loss would be bigger: McIntosh or Haynesworth? Knew you’d ask that. Oh, wait, it’s me asking the questions. That means I’m talking to myself. I need more rest. Anyway, for the style of game this could be, Haynesworth’s loss would be a big one. They need to get after Peyton Manning and because they’ll likely be in a lot of nickel and dime packages, Haynesworth (assuming he didn’t get too out of shape with 6 days away) likely would play a decent amount. And Colts center Jeff Saturday is small, giving Haynesworth an advantage. They need pressure and he can help generate it. As for McIntosh, if the Redskins use dime packages, he’s out of the game anyway. He’s been fine, but he’s only OK in coverage and that’s what will be called for the most.
3. What is the concern if Haynesworth does play? The draw. I can easily see Manning calling for a decent amount of draws if Haynesworth does play; having Saturday let him penetrate to a side and hitting them the other way. Haynesworth is so intent on pressuring the QB that I’m sure they’ll try to capitalize. But I’m sure the Redskins know this; heck it’s what other teams have done and the Colts love to run the draw.
4. How much should they blitz Manning? Actually, a better question is how many times should they send more than four rushers. The answer is not a whole lot. If they don’t get there, it’s probably a big play. However, if they sit back in a cover-2, I’m not confident in their zone coverages to stop this attack. They’ve shown too many soft spots and part of that stems from linebackers who, as a group, are merely OK in coverage. Some experts have said they’re worse than that. The key is taking away his first option and moving him off his spot in the pocket. The Redskins are good at disguising coverages and have to continue doing that; it won’t stop Manning, but maybe it will slow him a little bit. And you can be creative with four-man rushes, as they were vs. Aaron Rodgers last week. One thing about Manning, he’s very content at taking what the defense gives him. He’ll hit TE Dallas Clark on the seam route all day if the Redskins want to take away other stuff. And he does an excellent job putting the ball exactly where it needs to be to the receivers.
5. Where must the defense shine? In the red zone. The Colts average 27.2 points per game and move the ball quite a bit. The Redskins give up lots of yards. It doesn’t take a lot of thought to guess that Indy will move the ball. So red zone defense will be an issue. The Colts are 4th in the NFL in red zone offense; Washington is 14th in defense. The Redskins, vs. some explosive teams, have fared well inside the 20. Last week they did it with some good push up front and athletic plays by linebackers. But with Clark and some solid receivers, led by Reggie Wayne, the red zone must be at its best.
6. Where are the Colts vulnerable? They don’t run the ball well as injuries – nothing major, but enough to have some guys in and out — have prevented the line from gaining a lot of cohesion – sound familiar? Manning is on pace to set NFL records for completions and yards. Also, RT Ryan Diem hasn’t exactly been a standout this season. Nor is left tackle Charlie Johnson (among those listed as questionable). The line does well in protection, however; though some of that stems from Manning’s decision-making. And the backs are solid in protection; it’s a must in this offense.
7. Can the Redskins stop Indy’s defensive ends? If they don’t it’ll be a long day. Dwight Freeney has not been as dominant this season; he has three sacks but his impact on games is not the same as in the past. Still, he’s facing a rookie in Trent Williams who already missed two games with a knee injury and hurt it again last week. Williams’ ability to recover will be crucial, especially with Kory Lichtensteiger having some issues at left guard. I worry about RT Jammal Brown vs. Robert Mathis. Brown has probably an 80-pound weight advantage, but what was evident last week is that he has a hard time with fast guys who stay low as Clay Matthews did. If Brown can’t bend his knees better, look for Mathis to have some success.
8. How should they attack Indianapolis? That’s the key word: attack. The Colts’ secondary is thin thanks to injuries, especially at strong safety where Aaron Francisco is their third starter. And their corners are nothing special – the nickel corner is ex-Redskin Justin Tryon. The Redskins need to be aggressive in looking for chances downfield. With Donovan McNabb, that’s not a problem. He always likes taking a chance for a bigger play (on the play last week where Galloway appeared to draw interference that wasn’t called; Santana Moss was wide open at the first-down marker. McNabb went for the bigger play).
9. How is Indy’s defense effective? What the Redskins must guard against is the Colts’ speed in the front seven. They’re not big, but they are athletic and fast. For a team that loves to run stretch plays – and is not very good in run-blocking right now (not just the linemen, but overall) – this could be an issue. If the Redskins were more adept at cut-blocking, etc., then it might not be a big deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if they ran a little more to the right, using Trent Williams athleticism on the backside to open lanes. The Colts also like to run stunts; one reason why Kory Lichtensteiger is in ahead of Derrick Dockery is because his footwork is better. In theory, he should be better picking up stunts; that hasn’t always been the case. How the Redskins handle the speed up front will be a big issue.
10. Where else can Washington hurt them? The Colts have not been very good in punt coverage, allowing 14.9 yards per return. Now, that’s only on seven returns but even if you take away the longest return (39 yards), the Colts are allowing 10.0 yards per return. That’s a hefty amount. You listening, Brandon Banks? I’m sure he is. Of course, the trick as my colleague Rich Campbell of the Fredericksburg Free Lance-Star said Friday is actually forcing the Colts to punt. And not just to punt, but doing so from a spot where the return game will matter. Of punter Pat McAfee’s 20 punts, five have been fair caught and seven have been inside the 20. So Banks may only get one legitimate opportunity. The kid is aggressive looking for big returns; certainly that could cost him at times but my hunch is it will help him this week.
11. Who will win? There’s no doubt in my mind that Washington can win this game. The Colts haven’t been too impressive and they’re banged-up. Makes it tough to win on the road like that. Also, the Redskins have fared well vs. good quarterbacks this season. Opponents’ injuries have helped, but you have to credit what Washington has done. Still, my comfort level with Manning vs. this defense is not high. The Packers found enough soft spots (thanks to Donald Driver dropping passes they didn’t always take advantage) as have other teams. This will be another late-game situation that could swing either way. I think the Redskins are much improved, but to pull off a Philly-GreenBay-Indy sweep? That’s a lot to ask. Colts 27, Redskins 23.
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Here is this week’s Redskins mailbag.
Some thoughts from defensive coordinator Jim Haslett.
And, finally, notes and analysis from Friday.
