The November 2007 AEI Political Report begins with a comparative look at candidate standings in the Gallup poll a year before the election:
The two occasions when the eventual Democratic nominee placed first in the Gallup poll a year before the election? November 1983, when Walter Mondale led the field with 47 percent support nationally, and November 1999, when Al Gore held a 58 percent to 33 percent lead over Bill Bradley. Hillary Clinton’s current lead over Barack Obama in the Gallup poll is 50 percent to 21 percent. Hillary: the Walter Mondale of our age. The Republican race is more interesting. Giuliani’s first place position with 32 percent support nationally in the current Gallup poll is most similar to … Ronald Reagan’s first-place position with 35 percent support in November 1979. We know how that turned out. Of course, unlike Giuliani’s foes, Ronald Reagan’s liberal opponents didn’t call him a “crazy,” “deluded” “warmonger” … Oh, wait. They did call him those things.
