Two special elections for seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will be held September 13th almost 3,000 miles apart. The two districts could not be more different. One consists of mostly desert, leans Republican, and encompasses almost the entire state of Nevada. The other is entirely urban, votes Democratic, and includes parts of Brooklyn and Queens. The only thing the two races have in common is that both Democratic candidates are at risk of losing because their Republican opponents have relentlessly tied them to President Obama.
In Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District, Republican Mark Arnold has an ad on the air showing Obama making different speeches followed by Democratic candidate Kate Marshall saying the exact same thing. The ad ends: “Send Washington a message. Not a rubber stamp.”
In New York’s 9th Congressional District, Republican businessman Bob Turner has attacked his opponent, Democratic state assemblyman David Weprin, as a bought-and-paid-for product of New York’s political machine. Turner has also slammed Obama for “beating up Israel” and has forced Weprin to defend Obama’s record. Weprin has wavered. At one point he declined to say whether he would vote for Obama, and later he explained: “I will probably not refuse to endorse him because I think I will be more effective by supporting him but at the same time being very strongly against him on some of his policies.”
An internal Turner poll has the Republican tied with Democrat and the White House is worried enough that Obama for America national field director Jeremy Bird sent an email out to supporters asking them to phone bank for Weprin this week. If Democrats lose both of these specials after both Republicans made the races all about Obama, the president will be severely weakened heading into 2012.
Around the Bigs
Gallup, U.S. Unemployment Up in August: The Labor Department’s monthly jobs report is not due out until 8:30 am Friday morning, but according to Gallup’s survey unemployment at the end of August is 9.1% — up from 8.8% at the end of July.
The New York Times, U.S. Is Set to Sue a Dozen Big Banks Over Mortgages: The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which oversees Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, is expected to file suit in federal court against Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank, and others involved in selling mortgage securities. The government will argue that the banks failed to perform the due diligence required under securities law and missed evidence that borrowers’ incomes were inflated or falsified.
The Los Angeles Times, New-home slump keeping door shut on U.S. recovery: Thanks to too many homes and too few buyers, the home-building industry is heading into its fifth consecutive year of decline. “Our view is there is a 40% chance of a recession, and that will probably drag housing prices down at least another 10%,” IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport told The Times.
The Wall Street Journal, Rift Over Libyan Oil Emerges Among Allies: France, who was a big proponent of using NATO air power against Moammar Gadhafi, believes its oil companies should get preferential treatment when awarding Libyan reconstruction contracts. Russia believes the United Nations should handle reconstruction.
The Wall Street Journal, White House Downshifts on Jobs, Growth: A new White House economic forecast predicts that U.S. unemployment will be near 9% when voters go to the poll in 20212. The report, released by the Office of Management and Budget, is far more optimistic about the U.S. economy than either the Congressional Budget Office or private sector estimates.
The Hill, Obama, Boehner reach deal on timing of address to Congress: The White House and Speaker John Boehner’s,R-Ohio, office finally announced they had reached an agreement on when Obama will give another jobs speech, this time to a joint session of Congress. Obama will speak at 7 pm next Thursday. White House spokesman Jay Carney has repeatedly promised Obama will be done before the Packers and Saints kick off at 8:30 pm.
The Washington Post, Illegal immigration is flash point for Republican White House hopefuls: According to The Washington Post, Republican voters keep bringing up illegal immigration at presidential candidate events. “Immigration is not even close to the top issue for most Republicans today, but it is an issue that is heavy with symbolic importance to Republican voters,” GOP pollster Jon Lerner, tells The Post. “If a candidate is squishy on immigration, that symbolically suggests that he’s probably unreliable on a whole host of other conservative issues.”
Righty Playbook
In National Review, The Heritage Foundation’s Hans von Spakovsky definitively shows that Voter ID laws do not suppress minority voter turnout.
At The Corner, Ramesh Ponnuru doubts Obama’s political prowess: “Remember: He has never really had to fight for votes outside the Democratic base.”
RedState‘s Erick Erickson sketches out the general election ad he would like to see: “Barack Obama might want to run against Congress, but it is not John Boehner’s branch of government fining eleven year olds and hauling men off to jail for saving their children’s lives.”
Lefty Playbook
Salon‘s Justin Elliot details how Howard Dean succumbed “to Washington’s money culture.”
Talking Points Memo‘s Evan McMorris-Santoro says Democrats see an opening to attack House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., in the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.
Daily Kos‘ Laura Clawson reports that the Association of Flight Attendants union is planning on how best to pressure House Transportation Committee Chairman John Mica, R-Fla., into supporting a clean FAA reauthorization bill.
