More than 1.3 million Americans filed for unemployment last week, marking the 17th week in a row where at least 1 million people have filed, according to a new report by the Labor Department released on Thursday.
The number points to a gradual economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic. Yes, jobs are being added to the market at a quick pace, but too many companies are still slashing existing positions or refusing to take on new hires. In other words, we’re stuck. The booming economy of January 2020 is not going to reappear magically.
And the recent uptick in coronavirus cases will likely prolong that stagnation as states slow the pace of reopening or reintroduce restrictions on business operations.
This is bad news for President Trump, whose reelection campaign depends, in part, on the economy’s trajectory. Before the pandemic, people viewed Trump’s economy as the best since the late 1990s. As a result, nearly three-quarters of those polled at the time predicted that they’d do better financially over the next year. For many, that optimism would have translated to tangible votes.
But now, many of those same people are unemployed. Their businesses have been hit hard by the shutdown. Their kids are struggling to find jobs after college, and the future remains uncertain. These voters might decide to stick with Trump and hope that the economy rebounds over the next four years, as it did during his first term. Or they might blame him for the poor economic conditions and vote for Joe Biden instead.
It’s difficult to determine which scenario is more likely. But a recent the Hill-HarrisX poll did find that 54% of registered voters approved of Trump’s handling of the economy, which is 2 points higher than a similar survey conducted in mid-June. Another poll from NBC News and the Wall Street Journal showed similar results. And just last month, a majority of voters said they trusted Trump on economic matters more than Biden.
Still, that could change. Already, Trump is slipping. A new Quinnipiac poll released Wednesday found that Biden edged ahead of Trump when voters were asked which candidate they’d trust more in regards to the economy. And overall, Biden is leading Trump by a wide margin.
Trump will need to find a new strategy if he hopes to beat Biden this fall. He cannot depend on a quick economic surge for political momentum.
