More responses from Republican National Convention attenders responded to my question: What’s your best guess of Donald Trump’s percentage of the popular vote in the November election?
David Brooks, New York Times columnist, says 40 percent. “He’s been at 40 forever” in the polls, he says, which is not far off the mark. In the RealClearPolitics average of recent polls, his support in two-way pairings against Hillary Clinton has ranged from 38-44 percent.
Steve Moore, Heritage Foundation economist, first pegged Trump at 52 percent and then, considering the possibility that minor party candidates would get some votes, says 50 percent, and victory.
Rick Lazio, congressman from Long Island in 1993-2001 and Hillary Clinton’s Republican opponent in the 2000 Senate election, guesses Trump’s November national percentage will be 47 percent — a losing percentage.
He says Trump has “some opportunity” for gains in Long Island’s Nassau and Suffolk Counties and in the rest of the state, but if he doesn’t get 35 percent in New York City it’s “hard to see” him carrying New York. Mitt Romney’s 2012 percentage in New York City, by the way, was 18 percent.
