The other day, I mentioned an initiative by one of Mexico’s senators to retaliate against the Trump administration by refusing to buy U.S. corn. That senator, Armando Rios Piter, is a member of the far-left Party of Democratic Revolution (PRD), which ever since its close loss in the 2006 presidential election has been declining in power and influence.
But the Washington Post has an interesting piece today on how Trump’s rise could be good news for Mexico’s far left. Not for the PRD, but for their losing 2006 candidate, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, who subsequently started a fourth party called MORENA.
Lopez Obrador had been popular as mayor of Mexico City, but he squandered a lot of goodwill by refusing to accept the 2006 election result. He claimed he was the legitimate president of Mexico, and encouraged weeks of street protests. He lost again in 2012.
Last summer, his MORENA party trailed the field ahead of the Mexico’s July 2018 presidential election. But a new poll shows that he has seen a surge in support in the time since President Trump’s election.
The outrage in Mexico over Trump’s proposals has elevated a longtime politician who has unnerved the country’s business community with his nationalist views and leftist rhetoric. Political opponents have compared López Obrador with the late Hugo Chávez, a strongman who steered Venezuela toward socialism. While that may be an exaggeration, López Obrador, 63, can bring thousands into the streets on command. His critics worry that his penchant for stubborn resistance could provoke confrontation with the United States, while his fans see him as a defender of the common man.
Lopez Obrador leads in the new poll with 33 percent of the vote, to 27 percent for the candidate of the conservative National Action Party (PAN). Just six months ago, his party trailed the field with just 17 percent.
That Trump’s election intervened does not seem like a mere coincidence.
It may play well here at home when Trump pushes Mexico’s current, already unpopular center-left president into embarrassing positions where it’s hard for him to save face. But Trump needs to be careful what he wishes for.
Trump likes to talk about governing as if it were similar to making a business deal. Sometimes it can be a little bit like that, but there are limits to the comparison. But for the first time in his career, Trump is in “negotiations” with someone he can hurt badly enough that his successor will be someone who doesn’t want any deal and will act simply to spite him.
If Trump goes too far, there’s a danger of unleashing Mexican nationalistic furor and empowering someone who will make Mexico much poorer and more openly hostile toward the U.S. at the same time. That won’t be good for U.S. immigration or trade policy.
