Northern Virginia localities are ending the budget year in the black and are setting aside some of the unanticipated cash to cushion against any potential budget shortfalls next year. Alexandria became the latest Northern Virginia jurisdiction to post a surplus Tuesday night — $9.8 million, far more than the small surpluses the city has run in the recent past. The city spent less than it expected and raked in more tax revenue than expected, acting City Manager Bruce Johnson said.
The financial year was good for Alexandria’s neighbors, too. Fairfax County earlier this week doled out the extra $104 million it took in. Prince William County reported a $16 million surplus in early August. Loudoun County expects to report a surplus between $50 million and $60 million in November, said Ben Mays, the county’s deputy chief financial officer.
Arlington is already expecting an extra $23 million, and Budget Director Richard Stephenson said he expects that number to go even higher over the next month.
“We planned for the economic environment to be one way over 12 months ago, and I think Arlington fared well in the national economic crisis,” Stephenson said. “We conservatively estimated and forecasted, and we tightened our belt on spending, and now we expect to have additional savings and tax revenue.”
Other Northern Virginia communities tell the same story: Officials slashed budgets in 2009 and 2010, only to do better than expected for 2011.
But Northern Virginia officials are also nervous about the future. Alexandria, Fairfax and Prince William all set large chunks of their windfall aside for next year.
“There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty,” Alexandria Vice Mayor Kerry Donley said. “While the local economy still seems to be better than the nation’s, we’re not seeing tremendous economic expansions.”
Officials are right to be pinching pennies for the near future, said Stephen Fuller, director for the George Mason Center for Regional Analysis.
“There could have been a collective sigh of relief that general revenues have been better than we thought. But you can’t read that forward for next year,” he said, saying this year’s economic growth rate for Northern Virginia is 3 percent, compared with 3.8 percent last year. “It’s going to be a tough year.”
