D.C. Council Chairman and mayoral hopeful Vince Gray handily beat incumbent Mayor Adrian Fenty in a straw poll taken in Fenty’s hometown Ward 4 on Wednesday night. When the 982 votes were counted, Gray had 58 percent of the support from the ward that had made Fenty a councilman.
But the big victory could come at a cost to Gray. He’s now won five ward straw polls — 4, 3, 6, 7, and 8 — and the city wide Democratic straw poll. Fenty won the Ward 2 straw poll. The racking up of victories puts at risk Gray’s underdog status that he’ll need to get voters out to the polls for the Sept. 14 primary.
The voters whose voices are heard in straw polls are among the city’s most motivated. They march out in the late evening and spend time standing in line to help the candidate of their choosing obtain a strong showing. The candidates typically voice their opinions before the vote, but they don’t likely sway the minds of those present: The straw polls represent the most devoted followers.
Recent polls that represent the more average voter have shown that nearly 20 percent are undecided, and Gray and Fenty neck-and-neck. It’s this group the candidates have to convince, first to support them and then to show up on primary day. They’ll need motivation and in a fight against an incumbent mayor, the voters Gray is able to convince to support him will need the motivation that their candidate can’t win if they don’t show. A candidate Gray who appears far in the lead, likely wouldn’t give them that final push to get out the door and to their polling stations.
That’s why Gray’s team moved to cast him as fighting in Fenty’s shadow immediately following his Ward 4 win. ”While we know we are still the underdog in this race and have a lot of work to do, we definitely feel the momentum building for Vince Gray,” the chairman’s campaign manager said in a statement Thursday morning.
The question now becomes: Will voters believe that as Gray’s support appears to grow?
