President Trump is sinking further underwater in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, according to one of the worst polls for him in the state so far.
A Monmouth University poll of Pennsylvania voters conducted July 9-13 found that 53% supported Biden and 40% supported Trump, a 13-point lead. When accounting for likely voters rather than all registered voters, a more accurate measure of what the outcome of the election would be if it were held today, Biden’s lead over Trump ranges from 7 points, with 51% choosing Biden and 44% choosing Trump, in a low-turnout scenario to a 10-point lead, with 52% choosing Biden and 42% for Trump, in a high-turnout model.
“Even taking into account any polling error from four years ago, Biden is clearly doing well in swing areas. The Democrat has roots in this region, which may be helping him, but there seems to be an overall erosion of support for Trump compared to 2016,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute.
The poll surveyed 401 registered Pennsylvania voters by cellphone and landline phone and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%. Monmouth’s poll brings Biden’s Pennsylvania lead over Trump to 7.8% in the RealClearPolitics average of Pennsylvania match-up polls, and Biden’s 13-point advantage over Trump is the largest lead of polls that the site has compiled so far.
“The good news for Biden is that he hits the magic 50% mark in all the turnout models and far fewer voters are considering a third-party candidate than four years ago. This suggests somewhat more stability in the numbers, but there are also signs that Biden has not pulled clearly ahead of Trump on some key metrics,” said Murray.
Monmouth’s poll found that in the state’s swing counties, Biden is in a position similar to where Hillary Clinton was in 2016 and noted that Trump is doing slightly better in core Clinton counties. Biden, though, is doing better than Clinton was in counties that made up Trump’s base.
As Biden has started to ventures out of his Wilmington, Delaware, home after being confined there for months due to the coronavirus pandemic, he has visited neighboring Pennsylvania several times. Last week, Biden toured a metalworking facility in Dunmore, Pennsylvania, and a few weeks before that, he met with families who benefited from the Affordable Care Act in Lancaster, Pennsylvania.
