Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Republican opponent Bob Ehrlich are stuck in a virtual dead heat in the campaign for governor, although O’Malley has a $4.5 million cash advantage entering the last three months of the campaign.
O’Malley won 45 percent of voter support and Ehrlich won 44 percent of votes in a telephone survey of 750 “likely” voters conducted by Rasmussen Reports, a nonpartisan national pollster. Eight percent of voters said they are undecided and 3 percent said they prefer another candidate. Newly filed finance reports show that O’Malley’s war chest trumps Ehrlich’s, but Ehrlich has attracted more than twice as many donors as the Democratic incumbent in the last eight months. Catholic University politics professor John White says a wider donor base puts Ehrlich at an advantage over O’Malley.
“What this shows is you’ve got a very fired-up Republican base that’s not only ready to vote in November but also ready to open their wallets,” White said. “It’s no surprise that the incumbent has the institutional advantage. But it’s hugely important to have a base of voters that are mobilized and ready to do things for the campaign.”
White said O’Malley’s shorter list of donors is proof that Democrats — who outnumber Republicans 2-to-1 in Maryland — are less organized within the state.
White’s suggestion is supported by the latest Rasmussen poll showing 90 percent of registered Republicans ready to vote for Ehrlich, compared with only 70 percent of Democrats supporting O’Malley.
But O’Malley doesn’t need to win the support of every Democrat in such a deeply blue state, said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the nonpartisan Washington newsletter the Rothenberg Report.
“O’Malley still has a slight advantage,” Gonzales said. “O’Malley has the opportunity to define the debate because of the cash advantage.
Money isn’t the most important thing in politics, but it allows him the opportunity to determine what issues voters focus on.”
Also working in O’Malley’s favor, Gonzales said, is the roughly 40,000 new jobs Maryland has generated since January.
O’Malley’s approval rating has jumped four points to 54 percent since last month, according to the Rasmussen poll.
“This is an extremely competitive race and we’ve known that from the beginning,” Gonzales said. “The numbers only confirm what we already know.”
