The Saffron Revolution

From Rule of Lords, a scene from the Saffron Revolution.

Andrew Sullivan has the best round-up of the news from Burma, including a link to this list of eyewitness accounts. It sounds as though the government’s attempt to crackdown on the protesters fell short, and that tomorrow is likely to see more violence. One of the stories Sullivan links includes this description of the day’s events:

There were shades of Tianamen Square as people threw themselves and their bicycles on the ground, burying their heads in their hands or hugging their friends. Then a terrified human tide swept down the street, fleeing from the soldiers in my direction. A look of terror was etched on many faces.

There are likely to be a lot of comparisons to Tianamen, and with good reason. Burma’s primary patron is China, and as the New York Times reported today, China’s primary interest is stability–to keep the supply of raw materials flowing out of the country:

While Beijing has shielded Myanmar’s government from its international critics – for instance, by blocking a United Nations Security Council resolution earlier this year condemning its human rights record – it has also urged the junta to avoid a repeat of the violent crackdown on demonstrations in 1988 that led to extended periods of house arrest for the opposition leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi…. Tang Jiaxuan, a member of China’s State Council and a former foreign minister, told Myanmar’s foreign minister, U Nyan Win, on Sept. 13 that the Chinese government hoped its neighbor could restore stability and promote national reconciliation, the official Xinhua News Agency reported. “If Aung San Suu Kyi became the leader of Burma tomorrow, China would be the first country to roll out the red carpet,” said Bertil Lintner, an analyst of Myanmar politics based in Thailand. “But they wouldn’t like to see it happen.”

The 2008 Olympics are a wild card here. There seems to be a consensus that China will not take any extreme measure to prop up its Burmese client, but might the Olympics be used as leverage to pry the Chinese further away from the junta? FP Passport has this skeptical response:

China’s motives in relations with Burma have nothing to do with the Olympics. I doubt that even the idea of some connection has ever crossed the minds of Chinese leaders. Only someone distant from the region could even imagine that.”

But wasn’t there the same disconnect with Sudan? Giving credit where credit is due, the Hollywood crowd seems to have made a dent on that issue. By threatening to label the spectacle the “Genocide Games,” Mia Farrow in particular has helped to link the two. It certainly doesn’t seem like the idea should be dismissed out of hand. Equally worrisome is the role Russia may play. Reuters reported today that the Russian foreign ministry had released a statement with a rather menacing undertone:

“We consider any attempts to use the latest developments to exercise outside pressure or interference in the domestic affairs of this sovereign state to be counterproductive,” the statement said. It called on both the government and the opposition to “exercise restraint”, but added: “We still believe that the processes under way in Myanmar do not threaten international and regional peace and security.”

If Burma’s spectacularly nasty regime is preparing to slaughter its opponents, that looks an awful lot like a green light from Moscow.

The Saffron Revolution

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