Brad O’Leary projects a 623-seat GOP pickup in state legislative seats. I’m not so sure about his predictions on various states (Oregon and North Carolina, for example), but here’s some historical perspective on state legislative elections:
- In 2008, Democrats gained a net 63 state legislative seats (state House and state Senate combined).
- In 2006, Democrats gained 322 state legislative seats.
- In 2004, Democrats gained a net 76 state legislative seats.
- In 2002, Republicans gained a net 177 state legislative seats.
Given that recent history, you could say that Democrats are due for a fall, and a big GOP year could mean they get a bigger fall than usual. Larry Sabbato’s website notes that excluding the atypical years of 1934 and 2002, the average midterm gain for a president’s opposition party is 495.
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The big prizes for the GOP for redistricting purposes are the Pennsylvania state House, the Ohio House, the New York Senate, both houses in Wisconsin and the Michigan House. Other pickup opportunities include the Alabama Senate (which might require a few party-switches), both houses in New Hampshire, the Maine Senate, the Colorado House, the Indiana House, and the Nevada Senate.
