It is the ultimate conundrum for a Major League Baseball team. Scouts say that San Diego State pitcher Stephen Strasburg is a no-brainer as the first pick in today’s Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft.
The Nationals appear to agree as they are expected to take Strasburg with the No. 1 overall pick. But as much acclaim and hype as the 6-foot-4 right-hander has received — including cover stories by ESPN the Magazine and Sports Illustrated, among others — history tells the Nats to do something decidedly different: run.
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That’s because pitchers selected with the No. 1 overall pick almost never work out as expected. Twelve of them have been taken since the draft started in 1965. Some have gone on to good careers — Floyd Bannister, Andy Benes and Tim Belcher — while others have imploded thanks to injuries or expectations — Brien Taylor, a Yankees prospect who never made the big leagues after suffering a shoulder injury in a bar fight in 1992. And Paul Wilson, a New York Mets pick who won just 40 games in his career. There are no Hall-of-Famers and not even a consistent All-Star in the bunch. Just a lot of unfulfilled promise.
Ben McDonald is clearly the best approximation of Strasburg. He was chosen No. 1 by the Orioles in 1989 out of LSU with an eerily similar combination of a high-90s fastball, hard, biting curve and fine change-up. McDonald struggled under the high expectations and played for mostly mediocre teams in Baltimore and then two final years in Milwaukee. But he did produce some nice seasons with a 3.91 ERA during a nine-year career before shoulder problems finally forced him out of the game.
Even if Strasburg stays healthy, expectations must be managed. The Texas Rangers learned that the hard way with high-school phenom David Clyde, the No. 1 pick in 1973. A shortsighted need to draw fans led the Rangers to keep Clyde in the majors for two years immediately after he was selected. The results were a 7-17 record and ERAs of 5.01 and 4.38. Clyde finally was sent to the minors in 1975 at age 20, but arm problems shortly derailed his career. When it comes to Strasburg, the Nats can choose from a few different cautionary tales.
