Mike Huckabee’s decision not to run for president was not very surprising news if you’ve followed his life and career.
Having grown up poor and moved on to working in the church and public service for his whole life, he never had a chance to earn any big money. That changed when his last presidential candidacy vaulted him to celebrity status, and suddenly he ended up with his own Fox show and a successful book writing career.
Not only would he have to give that up were he to run, but running for president would have subjected him to all the scrutiny that goes along with it. He’d have to respond to attacks on his tax and spending record just like he did last time, and this time, he’d additionally be asked repeatedly to explain why he commuted the sentence of Maurice Clemmons, who went on to kill cops in Seattle in 2009. And ultimately, despite what polls say, it isn’t clear that he’d be able to overcome the limitations that he had last time — an inability to win states without a critical mass of working class and evangelical voters.
By not running, however, he gets to maintain his lucrative career, and not only avoid the type of attacks that would be part of a presidential run, but sit back as all the other candidates trip all over themselves to praise him and try to garner his support.
A Huckabee endorsement in early states such as Iowa or South Carolina would be huge for any presidential candidate. While it’s unclear who he’ll ultimately endorse, it’s fair to say he won’t endorse Mitt Romney. They had a tough battle in 2008, and one that Huckabee still seems bitter about.
With Huckabee out of the race, the social conservative vote will be up for grabs, and I think it could immediately benefit someone like Tim Pawlenty in Iowa, who not only has a strong socially conservative record, but ties to a large evangelical church, and a similar Horatio Alger biography to Huckabee that could appeal to working class voters there.
Last time, Huckabee started the race as an obscure former governor and emerged as a national celebrity. Now he gets to keep all that, and still significantly influence the race.
