Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., announced Wednesday that he will run for re-election, despite spending months saying he wouldn’t. Here are a few thoughts:
Decision Day
Did Rubio actually decide to run for re-election more than a month ago? As my colleague Ashe Schow wrote on May 25, “Rubio seems to be everywhere all of a sudden.” He was calling for federal investigations in Florida, gave an interview to the Guardian and published an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal.
Perhaps most importantly for Florida voters, he was actually voting in the Senate and responding publicly to constituent emails. “His focus is decidedly Florida,” Schow wrote. At the time, Rubio shut down any speculation that he would run. But running for office is a long process, and a lot happens behind the scenes before a candidate decides to run for office, like lining up potential donors and campaign staff. Even if he was still undecided a month ago, it seems like he was at least thinking about it.
Will he win?
Although Rubio is popular in many conservative circles, it’s not a slam-dunk that he’ll win re-election. Recent polling has been sparse, with Rubio leading likely Democratic nominee Rep. Patrick Murphy in one Quinnipiac poll by 7 percentage points, but losing to Murphy in a Public Policy Polling poll by 1 point.
But there are a lot of unknowns. How will polls change now that Rubio is officially running, rather than just getting speculation? Was Rubio only polling well because voters felt nostalgic about him? Rubio’s numbers might rise as he campaigns, but Democrats will also start attacking him, especially for missing votes while running for president. And how will the presidential election vote in Florida affect the Senate vote?
Bottom line: There’s a lot of uncertainty in this race.
Good News for the GOP
Rubio’s decision to stay in politics is good news for the Republican Party. At age 45 and of Cuban descent, Rubio has a lot of energy, breaks the mold of the stereotypical Republican and is a fantastic messenger of conservatism.
Assuming Rubio wins, he could have a long career as an influential Republican. Perhaps he could rise up to a cabinet position in the next Republican presidential administration.
Maybe Rubio’s 2016 presidential primary ordeal has convinced him never to run for president again. If not, it’s still plausible Rubio will be the one picking the cabinet for the next Republican administration.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
