Cautious consumers could pull back online holiday spending

Published November 30, 2008 5:00am ET



After the Black Friday weekend rush to malls, department stores and discounters, the shopping continues for consumers Monday — online.

Cyber Monday, the now-accepted kickoff to the online holiday shopping season, was coined in 2005 after Web retailers noticed a glut of people shopping online — most of them on their high-speed computers at work — on the Monday after Thanksgiving.

Last year, Cyber Monday totaled $733 million in online spending, a 19 percent increase from 2006 and an 84 percent jump from the average daily online spending totals during the preceding weeks, according to www.comscore.com.

“As shoppers focus on price this holiday season, online retailers will be extremely competitive to offer the best deals,” said Scott Silverman, executive director of www.shop.org. “Shoppers will be able to find thousands of bargains on Cyber Monday.”

This year, about 84 percent of retailers will roll out special promotions for Cyber Monday, up from 72 percent last year, according to www.shop.org. However, with retailers expected to heavily slash prices, total online sales are only expected to remain flat or increase only slightly from last year.

This week, www.comscore.com cut its forecast for U.S. holiday shopping, reporting that sales in the first 23 days of November had fallen to $8.2 billion, down 4 percent from the same period a year earlier.

Flat growth this season would compare with a 19 percent rise in 2007 sales, 24 percent in 2006 and 26 percent in 2005.

“Assuming the stock market doesn’t deteriorate materially during the season and that there is no apocalyptic news of major financial institutions, manufacturers or retailers failing, we should see online spending growth inch back toward positive as we get deeper into the season,” Gian Fulgoni, chairman of www.comscore.com, said in a statement. “However, if there is any more significant bad news just over the horizon, all bets are off.”

The most popular promotions are expected to be specific deals (39 percent), e-mail campaigns (33 percent) and one-day sales (25 percent), according to www.shop.org. Additionally, about 23 percent will offer free shipping on all purchases.

About 55 percent of workers with Internet access, or about 73 million people, will shop for holiday gifts from work on Cyber Monday, according to the National Retail Federation.

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