Wisconsin is a gradually reddening state in the post-Scott Walker era, but it’s still quite purple. And if Republicans want to build a majority in the Senate this November, they don’t want to be waging an open-seat battle over the Senate seat there. So it’s very good news for them that Sen. Ron Johnson, the first Republican to win a Senate race in Wisconsin since the Reagan era, has just announced he will be running for reelection.
Johnson has made a few controversial comments about the legitimacy of former President Donald Trump’s 2020 loss that Democrats will keep bringing up, but he still brings a lot to the table. The power of incumbency is a real thing, especially in what’s shaping up to be a wave year for his party. Second, there’s his proven success in twice defeating Wisconsin Democrats’ biggest living political hero, former Sen. Russ Feingold.
Although Johnson is known as the rich guy who originally self-funded his election and defeated Feingold in the wave election of 2010, he won his reelection with a very uplifting campaign that highlighted the effectiveness of his office’s casework in helping a constituent save a Congolese child’s life through adoption.
The early call for Johnson’s second victory on election night 2016 presaged Donald Trump’s unlikely success in Wisconsin that year, as Johnson’s race had been considered a lost cause by many pundits — Larry Sabato and Stu Rothenberg both predicted a Feingold victory. In the end, Johnson beat Feingold by 6 points, winning very big in the traditional suburban and exurban Milwaukee counties where Republicans need to run up the score — Waukesha, Ouzakee, and Washington. Trump, meanwhile, was eking out a much narrower win. In this second race, Johnson did not self-fund his campaign the way he had in 2010. In fact, he was outspent by Feingold, yet he won convincingly.
In a pinch, Johnson could still probably bring some level of self-funding to the race, which makes it just a bit harder for any promising up-and-coming Democrat to dash his or her self against the rocks during a year already shaping up poorly for Democrats. A few Democrats have already lined up for this race, including Lieutenant Gov. Mandela Barnes and Treasurer Sarah Godlewski.
Another candidate, Outagamie County Executive Tom Nelson, released an internal poll last spring showing him running a bit ahead of Johnson. But Johnson has trailed twice before (he was behind in some polls by double digits as late as October 2016) and yet come back to win, all under less favorable circumstances than he’ll face this year. That’s why Mitch McConnell is probably breathing a lot easier over Johnson’s decision to run again.
