Welcome back to the District, Livan Hernandez. Now, tell us again why the Nationals needed you and your 5.47 ERA? Just a week ago the Mets deemed you expendable. Now, Washington is guaranteeing you five or six starts in September?
Actually, the reason for the move is clear. The club does not want to push its young pitchers too far past their career innings mark – which studies have shown can do serious damage to inexperienced arms. This is a team, after all, that just lost 23-year-old Jordan Zimmermann – the best prospect they have not named Strasburg – to Tommy John surgery last month after he tore ligaments in his right elbow.
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Caution is the key word now. And that’s a problem because the entire rotation is made up of young pitchers and there are no viable veterans in Triple-A. They’re all babies there, too. Collin Balester, 23, was sent back to Syracuse late Tuesday night to make room for Hernandez, who will start on Wednesday night against the Cubs. At the very least, Hernandez and his rubber arm can eat up some of those valuable innings so the kids don’t have to. And that will be a big help to general manager Mike Rizzo. Here are the total innings pitched by Nats starters this year, including the top four pitchers at Syracuse, and their ages and previous career highs.
Collin Balester – 23
2008: 158 IP (career high with 80 in MLB)
2009: 133.2 IP (30.1 in MLB)
Status: Headed back to Syracuse for a start or two as the second-place Chiefs make a run at a division title in the International League. Will come back to the Nats soon after September 1 when MLB rosters expand. But maybe not until the Chiefs are eliminated or finish up any playoff run. Given his limited MLB innings, Balester is the best bet as a sixth starter. Would finish over last year’s total of 158 IP – but with far fewer thrown in the majors.
John Lannan – 24
2008: 182 (career high)
2009: 160.2
Status: Lannan’s probably okay. But there has to be some concern that he is wearing down given his three poor starts in a row. With 36 games left, Lannan has six starts to go in his season – or even just five if the organization thinks he needs a break. That will push him to a new career high, but still under 200 IP unless he has a couple of complete games in him. He does have two this season.
Garrett Mock – 26
2005: 174.1 (career high)
2008: 145.2 (41 in MLB)
2009: 104.1 (51 in MLB)
Status: Mock is well short of his career high in IP when he was a 22-year-old minor leaguer. Even with six more starts he won’t reach last year’s total. Appeared in 33 games as a reliever in Washington and Syracuse and has made just 16 starts between the two. Should have the freshest arm of the bunch.
Craig Stammen – 25
2008: 150.2 (career high)
2009: 141 (101 in MLB)
Status: Stammen, a rookie, has also shown signs of fatigue in the second half. He is a start or two from matching his career high – and his 2009 innings pitched are far more taxing with 101 of them at the big-league level. About 20 IP past his career high (say 170) is as far as Washington would dare push Stammen. Even five or six more adequate starts of five innings apiece would get him close. Would benefit the most from an expanded bullpen and an extra starter on the roster in September.
J.D. Martin – 26
2004: 152.2 (career high)
2008: 89.2
2009: 124 (34 in MLB)
Status: Though he’s 26, Martin is yet another rookie – and one who already knows the pain and heartache of Tommy John surgery. He threw a career-high 152 innings in 2004 as a 21-year-old. By the next summer his elbow was shot. It took until 2008 for Martin to even reach 89.2 IP again. He is well beyond that mark now. But do the Nats use that recent IP total or his 2004 career high from before the surgery? Martin could finish out his five or six starts and still be around 150 IP. But like Stammen, he could use some extra help.
Ross Detwiler – 23
2008: 124 IP (career high)
2009: 118.2 (52 in MLB)
Status: The rookies just keep coming. Detwiler came up in May, had a few good outings, but clearly wasn’t ready for full time duty. Made 10 starts for the Nats, another eight at Syracuse, where he is now, and began the year with six at Double-A Harrisburg. He will surpass his career high – probably in his next start for the Chiefs. Detwiler gained valuable MLB experience. That seems like enough for the No. 5 pick in the 2007 MLB draft. The guess here is the Nats shut him down when the Chiefs are finished.
Shairon Martis – 22
2007: 151 IP (career high)
2008: 137 (20.2 in MLB)
2009: 140 (85.2 in MLB)
Status: Seems unlikely the Nats would push Martis when there are better options available as a sixth starter in September. Gained plenty of MLB experience by starting the year in the majors. But despite five years in pro ball, he is still the youngest of all the team’s non-Strasburg pitching prospects currently in the high minors. Will surpass his career high in IP with Syracuse. Only Lannan and Stammen will end up having pitched more big-league innings for Washington in 2009.
Marco Estrada – 26
2008: 152.1 (career high with 12.2 in MLB)
2009: 126.1
Status: A forgotten man on the prospect list. Estrada finished up last year in the bullpen in Washington and has had a nice season in Syracuse (3.56 ERA). Will be close to his career high when the Chiefs finish up the first week of September. Do the Nats see him as a viable back-of-the-rotation starter? Seems like there are too many similar pitchers ahead of him (Mock, Stammen, Martin) with a host of younger prospects in the mix for those spots who have higher ceilings (Detwiler, Balester, Martis). But production counts. And Estrada has been a solid AAA pitcher for two years running. If he is viewed as a potential bullpen piece then maybe he gets the call again.
