House Republicans, many of whom have never been in a tough race, are being warned by party leaders to brace for an anti-GOP, anti-Trump “wave” that could sweep them out of office if they don’t batten down the hatches now.
In personal pitches from House Speaker Paul Ryan and in leadership memos, members are being urged to step up fundraising, hire campaign staff, and draw up a battle plan that focuses on local issues and legislative achievements.
Last year, we set out to make our country stronger, safer, and more prosperous and we did just that. Now I’m looking forward to seeing what we can accomplish in 2018. pic.twitter.com/K9ELd87URl
— Paul Ryan (@PRyan) January 31, 2018
“The message from the speaker,” said top Team Ryan campaign aide Kevin Seifert, “is if you’ve not had a race in awhile, you need to get ready, and you need to start preparing early for a campaign cycle that is going to be fairly different than you’ve had.”
“Good members kind of take that to heart and starting building a team out now, building a campaign plan. The other ones are the ones we have a lot of work to do,” added Seifert, who, like Ryan, is confident of the GOP keeping its House majority.
History indicates that a new president’s party gets whacked in the first midterm after the presidential election. The average is 32 seats, a handful more than the GOP holds.
To fight that, Ryan, the National Republican Committee, and the National Republican Congressional Committee have been on a fundraising tear, breaking records to fill a huge war chest. Ryan has become one of the party’s best fundraisers in history, and he still reserves weekends for family time.
In addition, he has been pushing through legislation lawmakers can tout on the campaign trail, such as paycheck-fattening tax reform, limiting Obamacare, and closing gun background check loopholes.
President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence also have signed on to help raise money and campaign.
They’ve got a bit of help. Recent polls show that the GOP is gaining in popularity and that Americans like the added money in their paychecks as a result of tax reform.
But the biggest enemy might be their past success, when keeping the GOP majority wasn’t an issue. “Complacency” is the word Seifert uses.
“A lot of our veteran members don’t want to believe that they are vulnerable or can get caught up in a wave,” he said. “It’s guarding our members early against this notion that somehow they are immune from what history tells us should be a negative cycle,” added Seifert, executive director of the Team Ryan operation.
Sometimes, that means jarring inactive members into action. At a recent GOP gathering, for example, the names of 45 lawmakers who were out-fundraised by Democrats in the past three months was flashed on a screen. They included Reps. Mia Love of Utah, Peter King of New York, and Dana Rohrabacher of California.
“Don’t get outraised,” said another screen.
In a memo to members following last month’s Ryan donor meeting in Florida, his team presented the “bottom line,” warning: “In order to be successful in 2018, our members need to gear up now and get ready for battle. They need to get legislative wins, and focus on issues that resonate locally in their districts. This election can’t be about personality or tone. Financially, over 40 of our incumbents got outraised by Democratic challengers last quarter, and that’s simply unacceptable. The National Republican Congressional Committee has more cash on hand than the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and we outraised the Democrats in January, but our individual members and candidates need to do their part if we’re going to succeed in November.”
Paul Bedard, the Washington Examiner’s “Washington Secrets” columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]
