On one level, it’s obvious: If someone asked you to pay $60,000 in tuition to stay at your parents’ home and take in some video lectures and sit through daily Zoom seminars, would you buy? Some of us would pay to get out of such an arrangement — forget about paying for the “privilege” of sitting through it.
But that’s not adequate to explain the collapsing enrollment at colleges and universities in America.
One million fewer people are enrolled in college now compared to March 2020 — when the pandemic convinced us all to bring the world to a halt. COVID-19 and our responses were almost certainly the primary drivers of the decline. Classes went remote. Dorms turned into prisons. Parties were banned. Many libraries were closed or restricted. Intramural sports and really anything fun were forbidden.
We can’t simply blame the lockdowns and the virus, though, because enrollment has been falling since long before any of us had heard of an N-95 or Zoom.
More than 20 million students
were enrolled
in U.S. colleges and universities (private, for-profit, and public) in fall 2011. In fall 2019,
the number was 17.5 million
.
What happened in between?
As with so many of our current trends, the most basic explanation is depopulation. Women in America have been averaging less than two babies each since Medicaid started covering the birth control pill in 1970. Slower population growth meant fewer children potentially going to college. (This trend will accelerate in about 2026, considering the dramatic baby bust that began in 2008.)
The booming job market also hurts college enrollment. It’s easier in 2022 to get a job without a high school degree than it has been any time in a decade. The value proposition of a college degree is a lot smaller when it requires giving up four years of income.
Of course, skyrocketing tuition and increased public attention on the drag of student debt don’t make the proposition look any better.
Speaking of public opinion, that may be the biggest driver today. In 2013,
70%
said a college education was “very important.” By 2019, only 51% gave the same answer.
Colleges and universities shouldn’t feel too bad, as it seems people are dropping out of everything from
the labor force
to
church and community
and even
bowling leagues
.
And if you’re looking for an upside, it’s not hard to find one: Your daughter is more likely to get the good dorm room now.
