Liz Cheney is poised to make a comeback on Tuesday from her last failed attempt at winning a seat in Congress.
Cheney, the elder daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney, is favored to win the GOP primary for Wyoming’s at-large congressional seat. Polling in the nine-person race has been limited, but a July 29 survey conducted by the Casper Star-Tribune and Wyoming PBS showed Cheney leading her nearest GOP opponent by 12 points.
“She is the leading candidate and is likely to prevail,” University of Wyoming political science professor James King told the Washington Examiner. “She won’t get 50 percent of the vote but she’ll get a plurality and become the nominee.”
In Wyoming, a deep red state, voters have not elected a Democrat to Congress since the 1970’s. That means if Cheney wins Tuesday, she will likely be headed to the U.S. House in January, completing a political comeback that has been aided by her family ties, fundraising advantage and her effort to re-establish her roots in the state after years of living in the Washington, D.C., area.
In 2014, Cheney dropped a bid to unseat U.S. Sen. Mike Enzi, a fellow Republican who was running for a fourth term. Cheney cited health reasons for her decision to quit the race, but her exit followed her inability to gain any traction in the polls against Enzi, who is popular with voters and the GOP establishment.
Cheney, an attorney and former Bush administration official who had at the time only recently moved back to Wyoming from the D.C. area, had difficulty shedding the “carpetbagger” label that Enzi supporters had used against her. She has since worked to re-establish her Wyoming roots and was much better positioned to announce her run to fill a vacancy left by the retirement of Republican Cynthia Lummis.
Cheney is not wildly popular among Wyoming Republicans.
The Casper Star-Tribune/PBS poll found 51 percent of voters still undecided. Tim Stubson, one of two Republican members of the Wyoming State legislature who is running in the GOP primary, said the undecided vote could make it possible for him to win.
“It shows us there is a huge opportunity because we believe most of those undecided folks are fully aware of who Liz Cheney is and they are folks who probably want a different option,” Stubson told the Examiner. “We are in a really good position to sweep in and show voters we are that option.”
Still, the Casper Star-Tribune/PBS poll showed Cheney with 21 percent of the vote and Stubson with about 9 percent.
Cheney enjoys a massive fundraising advantage, thanks in no small part to her father, who conducted numerous fundraisers. Federal Election Commission reports show Cheney raised $1.2 million this year, compared with Stubson’s $200,000.
Dave Wasserman, who analyzes House races as an editor for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said Cheney’s money and name recognition are what put her ahead of the competition and helped her overcome her newcomer status in a state where politicians are mostly home grown.
And unlike her Senate bid, Wasserman said, Cheney is not running against a popular incumbent.
“I do think there are a decent number of Wyoming Republicans who view her as a carpetbagger,” Wasserman told the Examiner. “But she’s dominated the messaging and airwaves in this case. Neither of her opponents has been able to compete with her in fundraising and advertising. That might be what it comes down to.”
