In the present crisis over Ukraine, the capabilities of the Russians are clear enough. As Adam Entous and Julian E. Barnes of the Wall Street Journal report:
Russian troops massing near Ukraine are actively concealing their positions and establishing supply lines that could be used in a prolonged deployment, ratcheting up concerns that Moscow is preparing for another major incursion and not conducting exercises as it claims, U.S. officials said.
That is the easy part.
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Still unknown, however, is Mr. Putin’s plan, or whether he has one. “It’s really a question of leadership intentions. Who does Putin tell, if anyone, what his plans are?” a senior Obama administration official said. “He’s obviously putting things in place in case he wants to go in. The question is whether a political decision has been made to do so.”
As that always eager to be helpful “senior administration official” says:
“What matters is the intent. And we don’t have a clear sense of that.”
It does not seem likely, however, that the buildup has no purpose other than to keep the troops sharp. This is not strictly a readiness exercise. Perhaps Mr. Putin is setting up a bargain. Quit with the sanctions, let Russia back into the G-8, permit my guys to do their banking and then … I’ll stand down.
Or perhaps he isn’t interested in any of that and simply wants Ukraine and considers this an opportune time to take it.
Seems he has the initiative.
