Know the market. It’s the most important thing a player and his agent can do heading into his free agent year. That wouldn’t seem to be an issue when you are clearly the best player in your sport. St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols said this week he will play out the final year of his contract and hit the open market next fall. He may re-sign with St. Louis, but it will have to compete with other suitors.
The big question now: Where will those offers come from? According to a report by Fox Sports.com’s Ken Rosenthal, Pujols was offered around $21 million a season by St. Louis before his arbitrary negotiating deadline expired Wednesday. Either the Cardinals really don’t care whether their star leaves or they just don’t believe the market for Pujols justifies a record-breaking contract. And they may not be wrong. Go down the list. Baseball’s two behemoths — the Red Sox and Yankees — have younger first basemen already in Mark Teixeira and Adrian Gonzalez. Technically, Gonzalez will be a free agent, too. But Boston gave up promising prospects to get him from San Diego, so an extension seems likely.
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If Pujols is really pushing for a $300 million deal, there aren’t a ton of obvious options. You need a big-market team with stable ownership that is already a contender and can move out its current first baseman. A 32-year-old Pujols isn’t signing with a bad team. Small markets shouldn’t even waste their time because spending that much money on one player would cripple the budget in places like Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh or Kansas City.
Financial hardship for their owners likely eliminates the Dodgers and Mets. The Phillies already have invested enormous cash in Ryan Howard. Complicating matters is the availability of Milwaukee’s Prince Fielder. No, he’s not in Pujols’ league. But he’s a pretty good fallback option for a club that wants a first baseman at a — relatively — cheaper price.
Teams like Anaheim, San Francisco and the Chicago Cubs all could presumably afford Pujols. Maybe a mystery club with a low payroll like the Nationals makes a run. Pujols is gambling someone will. If not, St. Louis’ strategy will have paid off.
