Ahead of the third Democratic primary contest this Saturday in Nevada, the 2020 presidential contenders are all either anxious to build on past successes or eager to allay concerns about their struggles thus far.
According to the latest polling at RealClearPolitics, New Hampshire primary winner Bernie Sanders looks to be the comfortable front-runner. Meanwhile, Pete Buttigieg has slipped since his successful showing in the Iowa caucuses, while other candidates such as Mike Bloomberg charge ahead in national polling. Needless to say, what happens in Nevada and South Carolina will determine much for the candidates who remain.
Despite the internal drama and personality conflicts, Democrats all have one goal: Beat President Trump.
The president’s reelection campaign poses many problems for the Democratic Party, as it boasts a strong economy, low unemployment, and a resolute foreign policy. That Trump is boisterous, boorish, and inclined to social media ranting may not work in the Democrats’ favor nearly as much as they hope. So too, Republicans who hope that far-left extremism will guarantee Trump a second term are engaged in wishful thinking.
Though the campaign season continues to unfold at a rapid pace, it is still only February. There are many more months to go before voters are asked to make final decisions at the ballot box. And general election polls don’t actually reveal all that much.
At first glance, many of the one-on-one scenarios show Trump losing to a Democratic contender. It is easy to review this type of polling, so far in advance, and make determinations about where the rest of the campaign is headed. But if 2016 taught us anything, it is that it’s best to not make assumptions about the inevitability of electoral outcomes — no matter which side you’re on.
In reality, both Trump and leading Democratic candidates, such as Sanders, are incredibly hard to sell to voters who aren’t all-in for any side. It is either extreme personalities or policies that can drive possible supporters away, and both parties can easily claim one of those potential turnoffs as their own.
Even Buttigieg realizes what a socialist might do to the Democratic Party’s chances come November. He said as much this week:
‘I share that concern,’ Buttigieg bluntly told Michael Nash, a 65-year-old retiree from Las Vegas.
With so much time left before decision day, anything can happen. But while the outcome is far from certain, it does seem that the electorate will experience a repeat of 2016 and face a choice between two politicians who hold dramatically different views on how to lead the country.
Instead of voting for someone with sincere admiration and support, it is very likely that voters will feel they must decide between the “lesser of two evils” once again. If candidates want to encourage the electorate to vote for someone, rather than against the other candidate, they’re not making very convincing arguments so far.
Polling may be a decent tool to offer a brief glimpse at the electorate’s ever-changing moods, but it can hardly be relied on this early in the game to predict what’s to come. So, if the choice comes down to Trump, one of the most polarizing politicians in history, and an extreme, far-left socialist candidate such as Sanders or an anti-human authoritarian such as Bloomberg, we may all be surprised at who ends up with the victory.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog and a columnist at Arc Digital.
