More people died in the aftermath of the Fukushima, Japan nuclear accident from the subsequent shutdown of the country’s nuclear power than from the disaster itself, according to a new study.
Within 14 months of the accident, the government shut down the operation of all of the country’s nuclear plants. That power was replaced by imported fossil fuels, leading to an increase in electricity prices by as much as 38% in some regions, making it unaffordable for certain energy users. The reduction in energy consumption led to an increase in deaths from cold weather, economists at Columbia University, Nagoya City University, and the University of Verona concluded in the paper circulated Monday by the National Bureau of Economic Research. The research has not yet undergone peer review.
The share of power generation from fossil fuels rose from 62% to 88% in the four years after the accident, while the share of nuclear power generation declined from over 30% to zero. Using data from 21 of the largest cities in Japan — representing 28% of the total population — the paper found that higher electricity prices resulted in at least 1,280 additional deaths during 2011 to 2014.
No deaths have been attributed directly to radiation exposure from the nuclear accident, but an estimated 1,232 deaths occurred as a result of the evacuation from the disaster site.
“Therefore, the deaths from the higher electricity prices likely outnumber the deaths from the accident in only four years if we extrapolate our estimates to the entire country, and almost certainly outnumber the deaths over a longer time period given that the higher electricity prices persisted beyond the end of our study,” the paper says. “This suggests that ceasing nuclear energy production has contributed to more deaths than the accident itself.”
The 2011 tsunami that struck Japan damaged the Daiichi nuclear power station in Fukushima, causing several nuclear meltdowns and explosions that sent radioactive debris into the air and nearby ocean. Most of the area was evacuated and remains uninhabitable.
The disaster in Japan sent ripple effects across the nuclear industry for nearly a decade, causing some countries such as Germany to stop using their power plants altogether after a public outcry over safety.
