New applications for unemployment insurance ticked up only slightly in the second week of March to 265,000, the Department of Labor reported Thursday, up from an ultra-low 258,000 the week before.
Private-sector economists had anticipated a rebound to 270,000 claims, according to Bloomberg.
The four-week moving average of initial claims was nearly unchanged at 268,000, an increase of just 750.
With Friday’s report, the jobless claims numbers are signaling that the outlook for job growth is strong. The four-week moving average for claims is at a level not seen before the past 18 months since the year 2000, even though the labor force is significantly larger now.
Investors and government officials, especially those at the Federal Reserve, view claims for unemployment insurance as an indicator of layoffs. Because the Labor Department reports the claims numbers from state departments each week, the claims numbers serve as a high-frequency, real-time gauge of labor market health.
In recent weeks, the strong claims numbers have translated into robust job growth. The U.S. economy has added an average of 228,000 payroll jobs in the past three months.
In late December and January, it appeared that claims were rising from a cyclical low in the fall, with the average at one point climbing above 285,000. Now, however, it seems that may have been a false alarm. The claims numbers never hit the 300,000 to 325,000 level that economists think would result in rising unemployment, and haven’t touched 300,000 in over a year.
The jobless claims numbers reported by the Labor Department are adjusted to smooth out regular seasonal variations.
