Voter anger, aimed mostly at incumbents, could push a third of the chairmen serving on top House committees out of office.
These chairmen, who have served at least 28 years each, have been thrust into competitive races after years of being re-elected with ease. Voters appear ready to reject them despite the incumbents’ power on Capitol Hill and their ability to bring money back to their districts.
“There are times when voters joyfully throw the baby out with the bath water,” said Rutgers University political science professor Ross Baker.
But Democratic strategists say the threat to these veterans is partly hype created by Republicans, who are comparing 2010 to 1994, when Republicans forced out Democratic chairmen and House Speaker Tom Foley, D-Wash.
“To some extent, I think a bulwark has been put in place to diminish the Republican wave,” said Democratic strategist Chris Lehane.
Among the most powerful House incumbents fighting for political survival:
» James Oberstar, chairman of the Transportation and Infrastructure Committee, has steered billions of dollars for roads and other projects back to his Iron Range, Minn., district and won his 18th two-year term with 65 percent of the vote in 2008. He is struggling against Republican Chip Cravaack, a retired Navy Reserve officer.
» Barney Frank, the powerful liberal chairman of the Financial Services Committee, took a lead role in writing financial regulatory reform legislation this year and often runs unopposed for re-election in the Bay State’s 4th District. But this year Frank is in a tough race for a 16th term against Sean Bielat, a former Marine who has attacked Frank over the financial reform bill and is capitalizing on the congressional district’s support of Republican Scott Brown in the January 2009 Senate race. Frank leads Bielat, but was worried enough to pour $200,000 of his own money into the race.
» John Spratt, chairman of the Budget Committee, is considered by some analysts to be the most vulnerable of the House chairmen. The 14-term incumbent from South Carolina’s 5th District is rated by most analysts as a toss up, with virtually unknown state Sen. Mick Mulvaney benefiting from millions in campaign cash from national Republicans in the swing district.
» Ike Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, is serving his 17th term and has had difficulty convincing voters that his powerful position can help protect the 15,000 jobs at the two military bases in Missouri’s 4th District. Skelton is tied with former state Rep. Vicky Hartzler, a Republican.
» Nick Rahall, chairman of the Natural Resources Committee and now serving his 17th term, has been criticized for supporting President Obama and for only weakly opposing cap-and-trade environmental legislation considered a threat to West Virginia’s coal industry. He faces Democrat-turned-Republican Elliott “Spike” Maynard.
