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TIME FOR TRUMP TO MOVE ON FROM TULSA: There’s no doubt Democrats and their allies in the press loved, just loved, the lackluster turnout in Oklahoma for President Trump’s first campaign rally in months. They took to Twitter to mock, and mock, and mock some more. “Is the savage and near-universal mockery of Trump’s crowd issues a little bit petty and ultimately meaningless?” former Obama speechwriter Jon Favreau tweeted during the speech. “Probably. Do we deserve this fleeting moment of enjoyment here in 2020? Absolutely.”
Obviously they loved it because they knew Trump hated it. And of course, Trump has often — as in really, really often — cited crowd size as a measure of his popularity and chances of re-election. And he has liked to rub his opponents’ noses in it. For example, even though he was basically unopposed for the Republican nomination, in January Trump flew into Des Moines for a rally before the Iowa Democratic caucuses. Trump filled the 7,152-seat Knapp Arena and had about 1,000 people standing outside in freezing temperatures. It was much more than any Democrat could muster, and that was the point — for the president to let his would-be rivals know he was bigger than the lot of them.
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Then came coronavirus and a temporary end to rallies. Trump’s decision to resume in Tulsa was partly driven by the media celebration of huge street protests stemming from the George Floyd case in Minneapolis. Big gatherings when the virus was still a threat? No problem! If that was OK, then why not a Trump rally?
Plus, Trump’s ratings were heading downward. His job approval rating, the most important indicator for a president seeking re-election, went from 47.3 percent on March 31 to 42.9 percent today, in the RealClearPolitics average of polls. In a head-to-head matchup with Biden, also from the RCP average, Trump fell from 5.8 percentage points behind the Democrat on March 31 to 9.5 points behind today.
So back to the rallies. In the Tulsa post-mortems, two factors seem to be most important in keeping attendance down. One was simply fear of contracting coronavirus. Attendees would be indoors, with thousands of other people, for hours. The other was fear of protesters. Both are problems Trump will just have to deal with as the campaign goes on.
As far as the virus is concerned, Trump should recognize his supporters’ reasonable anxieties. Hold events outdoors, create enough space for people to be comfortable there. If that means a smaller rally, so be it; in any event, it is not going to be a Bidenesque gathering with a few circles on the floor. (By the way, an outdoor rally is pretty much what I recommended before the Tulsa rally — see below.)
As far as protesters are concerned, law-and-order is on Trump’s side. There is simply no constitutional right to block access to a political event. It doesn’t matter how “peaceful” the action might be, there is no right to block a political event. Protesters will always overreach. Trump will ultimately benefit electorally from mob efforts to shut him down.
