‘A MAJOR DEFEAT’: Ukraine’s better-equipped and highly motivated troops are enjoying “stunning success” and achieving “key strategic” objectives on three fronts in their counteroffensive to expel Russian troops from their sovereign territory, a senior Pentagon official said Monday.
The rout of Russian forces in the northern Kharkiv province, the capture of the logistics hub of Lyman in the east, and the breakthrough of Russian lines in the Kherson region in the south have vastly improved Ukraine’s prospects as winter approaches, said Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs, at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event.
“Ukraine’s goal is to push back the Russian bridgehead on the Russian bank of the Dnieper in Kherson, and that will be both a major defeat for Russia,” said Wallander. “It pushes back even more Russia’s ambition to take Odesa, which was one of the stated objectives earlier this year. It becomes that much harder, and it gives Ukraine a much better defensive position to ride out what probably will be a tamping down of the hot fighting over the winter.”
“So Ukraine seems to be on track to achieve all three of those objectives right now,” she said.
‘IN A DEFENSIVE CROUCH’: Wallander’s assessment came as a senior military official told reporters at the Pentagon that there was little sign on the battlefield of the reinforcements called up in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s widely unpopular mobilization and said it appears Russian troops who abandoned Lyman are being pushed east in the face of a continued Ukrainian advance.
“After Russian forces ceded that territory, it’s our assessment that many of these Russian forces have moved back toward Kreminna, which is east of Lyman, and are likely prioritizing that location to hold the line and robust further Ukrainian advances,” said the official, who called the liberation of Lyman a “significant operational accomplishment.”
“We have not seen a large-scale reinforcement of forces at this stage. In terms of whether or not any of the newly mobilized forces have moved into Ukraine, all I would say at this stage is not in a large scale,” said the official, who noted Russian offensive operations appear to have stalled. “Near Bakhmut, we see heavy fighting continuing as Russian forces have tried to push west, but no significant shifts on the ground have occurred as Ukrainian forces continue to hold the line there.”
As for Ukraine’s southern counteroffensive aimed at retaking Kherson, the official said Russian forces there are facing supply challenges and “essentially are in a defensive crouch,” calling the overall picture “a very dynamic battlefield.”
PENTAGON HAS NOT SEEN ‘LARGE-SCALE REINFORCEMENT’ OF RUSSIAN FORCES
ISW: ELITE RUSSIAN FORCES ‘INCREASINGLY DEGRADED’: The daily battlefield assessment from the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War concluded that “Ukrainian forces continued to make substantial gains around Lyman and in Kherson Oblast in the last 48 hours” and “are continuing to push east of Lyman and may have broken through the Luhansk Oblast border in the direction of Kreminna.”
“As ISW has previously reported, the Russian groupings in northern Kherson Oblast and on the Lyman front were largely comprised of units that had been regarded as among Russia’s premier conventional fighting forces before the war,” the assessment said.“Their apparent failures to hold territory against major Ukrainian counteroffensive actions is consistent with ISW’s previous assessment that even the most elite Russian military forces are becoming increasingly degraded as the war continues. “
“Today, the offensive movement of our army and all our defenders continued. There are new liberated settlements in several regions,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in his nightly video address.
“Fierce fighting continues in many areas of the front. But the perspective of these hostilities remains obvious — more and more occupiers are trying to escape, more and more losses are being inflicted on the enemy army, and there is a growing understanding that Russia made a mistake by starting a war against Ukraine,” Zelensky said.
“Among the dead occupiers, we can already see those who were taken just a week or two ago. People were not trained for combat. They have no experience to fight in such a war. But the Russian command just needs some people, any kind, to replace the dead,” he said. “This is how Russia fights. That’s how it will lose as well.”
RUSSIA RETREATS FROM LYMAN AS UKRAINIAN OFFENSIVE CONTINUES TO PUSH FORWARD
Good Tuesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by Stacey Dec. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Pakistan’s chief of the army staff, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, at the Pentagon at 2:30 p.m.
NORTH KOREA’S LATEST MISSILE LAUNCH: In Japan today, warning sirens blared as a North Korean intermediate-range ballistic missile soared over the northern tip of the nation for the first time in five years.
North Korea has ramped up its missile tests over recent months, firing off more than a half dozen short-range ballistic missiles since Sept. 24. But today’s launch of an intermediate-range missile, which can travel up to 2,800 miles, could in theory reach the U.S. territory of Guam.
The provocative test prompted late-night calls from White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan to his Japanese and South Korean counterparts.
“The United States strongly condemns the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea’s (DPRK) dangerous and reckless decision to launch a long-range ballistic missile over Japan. This action is destabilizing and shows the DPRK’s blatant disregard for United Nations Security Council resolutions and international safety norms,” said National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson in a statement.
“The United States will continue its efforts to limit the DPRK’s ability to advance its prohibited ballistic missile and weapons of mass destruction programs, including with allies and U.N. partners,” the statement said.
ATACMS VS GMLRS: The debate over Ukraine’s need for longer-range weapons to press its advantage over retreating Russian forces has heated up in the wake of a report from CNN’s Alex Marquardt that Ukraine has offered to give the U.S. approval authority over the targets it would strike to ensure the weapons don’t end in Russian territory.
On CNN yesterday, retired Gen. Wes Clark, former NATO commander, pleaded with the Biden administration to stop worrying about provoking Russia and send the long-range Lockheed Martin ATACMS missiles that can be fired from the 18 HIMARS launchers already provided to Ukraine.
“As far as Putin is concerned, we are directly involved, so we’re playing a game with our own population here,” Clark said. “The Russians say it’s World War III against us and against NATO, so we’re only fooling ourselves.”
“I’m going to tell you, we need those ATACMS in there. The president so far has said no, but we need the Switchblade 600s [kamikaze drones by AeroVironment], and they’re being held up and had been held up for six months in various bureaucratic snafus inside the administration.” Clark said. “Those killer drones that we’re going to put in there are critical. They can do some of the same things that the ATACMS can do, not as far, but they’re very effective going across the lines. … So I hope we’re going to accelerate and expedite what we’re providing to the Ukrainians. They’ve got momentum — this is the time to do it.”
The counterargument was made later on CNN by retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, like Clark a CNN military analyst, who argued that the shorter-range GMLRS rockets, which can be fired six at a time, actually give Ukraine “more bang for the buck” and are what the Ukrainian forces need for the “close fight” they are in now.
“Let’s do more math. There are 18 U.S. HIMARS inside of Ukraine that we have given them. You can either shoot six of them very precisely at 50-plus miles, and each carries a 200-pound warhead to hit a target, or you can fire one ATACM, with a 500-pound warhead, that goes about 150 miles [for] one target,” argued Hertling. “So you’re trading six for one.”
“They’re fighting the enemy from within 10 to 50 miles out. So the determination has been made by the Department of Defense that’s what they need right now,” he said.
Hertling explained his thinking in a Twitter thread a few weeks ago.
MUSK STEPS IN IT: Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk decided to conduct his own referendum on Twitter about whether the Russian-occupied regions of Ukraine should join Russia, and it drew an epic blowback on Twitter.
In a Twitter poll, Musk asked his followers to vote yes or no on his Ukraine-Russia peace plan, which was: “Redo elections of annexed regions under UN supervision. Russia leaves if that is will of the people.”
Musk is apparently unaware that many of the people who live in those regions had to flee the Russian invasion or that invading a sovereign country to stage coerced referendums to seize territory is a violation of international law or that Ukrainians overwhelmingly voted for independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
The poll was widely derided as clueless on Twitter, with the most trenchant rebuke coming from Andrij Melnyk, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany. “F*** off is my very diplomatic reply to you,” he tweeted.
UKRAINIAN DIPLOMAT TELLS ELON MUSK TO ‘F*** OFF’ OVER PEACE DEAL PROPOSAL
NO PANDEMIC? WHY MANDATE? Republicans on the House Armed Services Committee have some pointed questions for Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin about the Pentagon’s COVID-19 vaccine mandate if, as President Joe Biden said on 60 Minutes, “the pandemic is over.”
In a letter to Austin, the lawmakers are asking for:
- A timeline to end the COVID-19 vaccine mandate or an understanding of why he plans to keep the order in place
- A determination on how the president’s announcement affects his determination to continue to enforce the mandate
- A review of the COVID-19 impacts on operational readiness for the Combatant Commands
- A summary review of litigation against the Department of Defense for the COVID-19 vaccine mandate
- And an assessment of how the COVID-19 mandate is affecting recruitment and retention in the Armed Forces
The letter comes after Biden’s declaration that the “pandemic is over” and follows concerns raised in a June 2, 2022, memorandum by the Department of Defense Office of Inspector General on denials of religious accommodation requests for the COVID-19 vaccine, said Rep. Mike Rogers (R-AL), lead Republican on the House Armed Services Committee, in a press release.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Russia retreats from Lyman as Ukrainian offensive continues to push forward
Washington Examiner: Pentagon has not seen ‘large-scale reinforcement’ of Russian forces
Washington Examiner: Nine European leaders announce support for Ukraine’s bid to join NATO
Washington Examiner: Ukrainian diplomat tells Elon Musk to ‘F*** off’ over peace deal proposal
Washington Examiner: Nord Stream pipelines are no longer leaking methane into Baltic, Gazprom says
Washington Examiner: Russian court set Griner appeal for later this month
Washington Examiner: Russian submarine with ‘nuclear tsunami’ technology vanishes: Report
Washington Examiner: Retired three-star Coast Guard vice admiral rips Pentagon over vaccine mandate
Washington Examiner: US military says it killed al Shabab leader in Somali strike
Washington Examiner: Poland demands Germany pay $1.26 trillion in reparations for World War II
Washington Examiner: New date emerges for climactic Jan. 6 hearing postponed due to hurricane
New York Times: In Retreat on Ukrainian Fronts, Russia Shows Signs of Disarray
New York Times: Russia’s Small Nuclear Arms: A Risky Option for Putin and Ukraine Alike
Washington Post: In Triumph, Kyiv’s Troops March On
Yonhap: Yoon Warns Of ‘Resolute’ Response After N. Korea’s IRBM Launch
Defense News: Menendez Seeks Path Forward For Taiwan Defense Bill
Air & Space Forces Magazine: US Nuclear Posture Unchanged Despite ‘Concerning’ Russian Threats, Officials Say
Foreign Policy: The Royal Navy Has More Ambitions Than Assets
Air Force Times: Air Force Overhauls Pre-deployment Training for a New Era in Combat
Air & Space Forces Magazine: C-130Hs With Older Propellers Grounded Due to Cracked Parts
Air & Space Forces Magazine: To Speed Up Acquisition, Space Force Wants More Honesty From Industry
Space News: Firefly, Millennium Space Selected for Space Force Rapid-Launch Demonstration
Breaking Defense: On Next Generation Air Dominance Program, US Eyes Cooperation With Allies
Task & Purpose: Once Again, The Navy Has A New Uniform For Sailors
19fortyfive.com: What Military Options Does Putin Have in Ukraine (Before Nukes)?
19fortyfive.com: 60,000 Dead: Putin’s Ukraine Retreat Looks Like a Disaster
19fortyfive.com: Why Ukraine Is the Only Country Using the Soviet Union’s Secret T-64 Tank
19fortyfive.com: Russia Doesn’t Need Aircraft Carriers Anymore
19fortyfive.com: China’s Small Aircraft Carrier Fleet Has Big Ambitions
Calendar
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 4
10 a.m. 775 Massachusetts Ave. N.W. — Brookings Institution discussion: “Will China’s strongman become even stronger? What the 20th Party Congress means for the United States,” with Thomas Friedman, op-ed columnist at the New York Times; Cheng Li, director of the Brookings Institution China Center; and Suzanne Maloney, vice president, Brookings Institution https://www.brookings.edu/events/will-chinas-strongman-become-even-stronger
1 p.m. — New Democrat Network virtual discussion: “The nature of America’s current conflict with Russia,” with David Rothkopf, co-founder and CEO of the Rothkopf Group https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group virtual discussion: “Winning on Readiness: Strategic Playbook for Digital Transformation,” with Air Force CIO and Deputy Director for Plans and Integration Jason Howe; Space Force Deputy Chief of Space Operations for Human Capital Katharine Kelley; Viral Chawda, principal federal technology consulting leader at KPMG; and Patricia St. George, lead account partner for the Air Force at KPMG https://events.govexec.com/winning-on-readiness
2:30 p.m. Pentagon River Entrance — Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin welcomes Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistan’s chief of the army staff to the Pentagon
3 p.m. — U.S. Institute of Peace Twitter Space discussion: “What Comes Next for Russia, Ukraine, and Europe’s Peace and Security,” with Angela Stent, nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution; and Mary Glantz, senior adviser at the USIP Russia and Europe Center https://www.usip.org/events/twitter-space-what-comes-next
8 p.m. EDT Yorba Linda, California — “The Nixon Seminar on National Security and Conservative Realism,” with former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and former national security adviser Robert O’Brien. Livestream at https://www.youtube.com/watch
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 5
8 a.m. 1910 Oracle Way, Reston, Virginia — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association discussion: with Kimberly Buehler, director of the Army Office of Small Business Programs https://afceanova.swoogo.com/OCT22SBB
12 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies virtual discussion: “NAFO (North Atlantic Fellas Organization) and Winning the Information War: Lessons Learned from Ukraine,” with Matt Moores, co-founder of NAFO; and Iuliia Mendel, Ukrainian journalist https://www.csis.org/events/nafo-and-winning-information-war-lessons-learned-ukraine
12 p.m. — Hudson Institute virtual book discussion: The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD (mutually assured destruction): How Massive Attacks of Disruption Became the Looming Existential Danger to a Divided Nation and the World at Large, with author Harlan Ullman, senior adviser at the Atlantic Council; Susan Eisenhower, president of the Eisenhower Group; Dov Zakheim, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies; and former Pakistani Ambassador to the United States Husain Haqqani, director for South and Central Asia at Hudson https://www.hudson.org/events/2163-the-fifth-horseman
THURSDAY | OCTOBER 6
9 a.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave, N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: on “The Implementation Plan for the Army Climate Strategy,” with Principal Deputy Assistant Army Secretary for Installations, Energy, and Environment Paul Farnan and former Assistant Defense Secretary for Operational Energy Plans and Programs Sharon Burke https://www.csis.org/events/launch-army-climate-implementation-plan
11 a.m. 2121 K St. N.W. — International Institute for Strategic Studies discussion: on “Ukraine: Back to the Future (of Warfare)?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner of WestExec Advisors; Ukrainian Maj. Gen. Borys Kremenetskyi, defense attache at the Embassy of Ukraine; Lawrence Rubin, associate fellow at IISS; and Franz-Stefan Gady, senior fellow at IISS https://www.iiss.org/events/2022/10/ukraine-back-to-the-future-of-warfare
1 p.m. — Atlantic Council virtual Forward Defense Forum: “How Can We Deter China in the 2020s?” with former Defense Undersecretary for Policy Michele Flournoy, co-founder and managing partner at WestExec Advisors; and Tim Cahill, senior vice president for global business development and strategy at Lockheed Martin https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/how-can-we-deter-china-in-the-2020s/
FRIDAY | OCTOBER 7
2 p.m. 1616 Rhode Island Ave. N.W. — Center for Strategic and International Studies discussion: “The current state of affairs in Afghanistan,” with Fawzia Koofi, Afghan parliamentary lawmaker https://www.csis.org/events/armchair-discussion:-fawzia-koofi
TUESDAY | OCTOBER 11
TBA — NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg news conference ahead of NATO Defense Ministerial. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
WEDNESDAY | OCTOBER 12
TBA NATO Headquarters, Brussels — NATO Defense Ministers, including U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, meet over two days at NATO Headquarters in Brussels. A separate meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group, hosted by the U.S., will take also take place. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is scheduled to conduct a news conference at the end of each day. https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“F*** off is my very diplomatic reply to you.”
Andrij Melnyk, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, in response to Telsa CEO Elon Musk’s tweet suggesting a redo of the Russian referendums under U.N. supervision
