October 2, 2024 Print Edition
Cover Story
Contested election: How a close race with dueling polls creates risk of surprises, delays, and doubts
Before President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid in July, there was a broad consensus about where the 2024 race for the White House was headed. Former President Donald Trump was going to win and Biden was about to lose, with the only remaining questions involving the margin of victory and how many downballot Democrats the incumbent was going to drag down in defeat with him. Even then, there were still occasional reputable public polls that showed Biden with a fighting chance. An NPR-Marist survey released after the fateful June 27 debate actually showed the soon-to-be defenestrated Democrat leading by 2 percentage points nationally. That was an outlier, but Fox News and NBC News polls that came out around the same time gave Trump leads of 1 and 2 points, respectively, well within the margin...
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