Berlin
The final campaign rally of the Social Democratic party (SPD) was impressive. More than a thousand people gathered at Pariser Platz, waving red banners and posters that said things like “We Are for Frank” (referring to the party’s candidate for chancellor, Frank-Walter Steinmeier) and “Bankers Would Vote for Merkel” (as in Christian Democratic chancellor Angela Merkel). A stage had been erected directly beneath the Brandenburg Gate and the sun was setting behind it. The weather could not have been any better–mild and sunny. (Such weather has a name: Kaiserwetter.)
There were musical acts. One band called Jazz Cantina specializes in transforming popular rock songs into jazz numbers. Their rendition of Van Halen’s “Jump” defies description. There was a video montage showcasing German actors and other personalities praising Steinmeier. This was seemingly meant to convey that, as people like the American sociologist Norm Birnbaum and the actor who played Josef Goebbels in Downfall like Steinmeier, you should like him too.
When the candidate finally took the stage, he implored his supporters to come out and vote. He reminded everyone that his party was against the Iraq war and President Bush (who hasn’t been president for some time, but so what). “The future is in our hands on the 27th of September,” Steinmeier declared while sweating profusely. “And therefore I am telling you, two more days. This race, ladies and gentlemen, is again wide open. Everything is again wide open!” And although he didn’t ask, “Where is the outrage?” he did say, “We need you!” Which they desperately did.
The most recent preelection polls had the Social Democrats below 30 percent, and when the election results came in the following Sunday evening, the SPD had received a mere 23 percent of the vote–its worst result since 1949. And while the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its sister party in Bavaria, the CSU (Christian Social Union), earned an unimpressive 33.8 percent, it was enough to govern thanks to its preferred coalition partner, the FDP (Free Democratic party), which ran on a pro-business platform of lower taxes and welfare reform and received a record 14.6 percent of the vote. As the headline in Die Handelsblatt put it, “The FDP Rescues Chancellor Merkel.”
Yet the results do not mean a majority of Germans have decided to embrace free enterprise. While voters abandoned the SPD in droves–only 9 million Germans voted for the Social Democrats, down from 18 million in 2002–they didn’t necessarily all turn to the right. According to an Infratest dimap poll, 2 million traditional SPD voters simply stayed home. Another 1.1 million turned to Die Linke, a recently formed far left party composed of leftist radicals, disenchanted Social Democrats, and former Communists, which won 11.9 percent of the vote, primarily in tahe east. In the state of Brandenburg, 27.2 percent of the populace voted for Die Linke despite eight of its candidates’ being former Stasi informants. (In case you are wondering, Afghanistan was a nonissue in the election–though Die Linke was demanding immediate withdrawal–in part because the old government’s foreign minister was Steinmeier of the SPD. Approximately 4,800 Bundeswehr soldiers are currently stationed in northern Afghanistan–the third largest deployment in that country–and troop strength may even increase to 7,000 depending on reauthorization.)
According to one poll, 67 percent of traditional SPD supporters consider their party to have betrayed its principles (one of which is “social justice,” though a German pollster told me he still isn’t quite sure what the phrase actually means). The sense of betrayal dates back to the days when former chancellor Gerhard Schröder advocated a series of domestic reforms called Agenda 2010. It was akin to President Clinton’s signing the 1996 welfare reform bill.
But imagine not only that Democratic voters hadn’t forgiven Clinton for welfare reform six years later, but also that a leading member of the Democratic party splintered off to form his own faction and took with him almost 12 percent of the vote. This is what former SPD chairman Oskar Lafontaine did when he formed Die Linke in 2007, merging with the PDS (the successor to the East German Communist party). This act of treason is also partly why a coalition involving the Social Democrats and the far left on a national level is unlikely for the foreseeable future–at a roundtable discussion following the recent elections, Steinmeier could barely look at Lafontaine.
For Merkel and the FDP’s Guido Westerwelle (the incoming vice chancellor and foreign minister), the question is whether the new coalition is an opportunity to tackle serious reform, from lowering taxes and cutting wasteful spending to health care and relaxing restrictions on Germany’s hiring and firing practices.
According to Marcus Pindur, an editor at Deutschlandradio, “Neither the Christian Democrats nor the Free Democrats can afford to disappoint their constituencies because the margins of victory are slim. The problem is that meaningful reforms go along with costs–less social security, more self-reliance. German voters are in their majority averse to that.”
Constanze Stelzenmüller, a senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, is more skeptical:
Time is also not on the side of the new government. A “layoff campaign” by companies across the country is looming. Manufacturing orders are plummeting. In addition, Stelzenmüller notes, “Of the two measures that have protected Germans somewhat from the economic crisis–the cash for clunkers scheme that protected the auto industry and the short-term work schemes which protected jobs–the first is already over and the short-term work schemes will be over soon.”
Nevertheless, after four years of aimlessness with a coalition of the main left and right parties, the Germans have opted for (in Stelzenmüller’s word) clarity. The dream of a consensus-seeking grand coalition government crafting sensible, moderate policies in uncertain times turned out to be just a dream. (Leaving Germany last week, an American friend joked, “The Grand Coalition ist kaputt!” At which a female security officer mumbled, “Believe me, it wasn’t so grand.”)
The power-sharing arrangement turned out to be detrimental to both major parties, and the minority parties, including the Greens, enjoyed record support in the election. Luckily for Frau Merkel, she is still the second-most popular politician in the federal republic and so remains in power. (The most popular is Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg of the CSU, the 37-year-old economics minister considered a likely future chancellor.) On the other hand, says Marcus Pindur, the SPD is “perceived as being without orientation.” SPD representative Karl Lauterbach told the press last week that his party “does not believe in itself and thus cannot persuade voters.” It faces a grave dilemma of either moving toward the center or lurching further to the left.
Perhaps it was only fitting that at the final SPD rally, the band Jazz Cantina ended its set with a version of AC/DC’s “Highway to Hell.”
Victorino Matus is assistant managing editor of THE WEEKLY STANDARD. He was in Germany under the auspices of the Friedrich Naumann Foundation for Freedom, which is associated with the Free Democratic party.
