Joe Biden may be denying that he ever called South Carolina his “firewall,” but there’s no getting around the fact that it’s a crucial piece of his 2020 Democratic primary map.
“I said I’m going to do well there, and I’ll do well there, and I’ll do well beyond there, as well,” Biden told CBS’s Face the Nation over the weekend, refusing to accept the premise that he described South Carolina as the state that would save his floundering third White House bid.
Actions speak louder than words, however.
While the campaign of the former vice president, 77, went to great lengths to downplay his chances in predominately white Iowa and New Hampshire, where he finished fourth and fifth, both the candidate and his team have been open about the importance of Nevada, South Carolina, and Southern Super Tuesday states, as well as California and Texas, to their strategy, given the states’ diversity.
To political historian Matt Dallek, South Carolina, in particular, has been billed as a Biden stronghold.
“If he comes in second and he’s not won a single state among the first four, it’s hard to see a path to the nomination because, at some point, you do need to win states. You can rack up delegates in other ways, as well, but you’ve got to show that you can put together a coalition that will win you a state, particularly in South Carolina where it’s a multiracial coalition,” Dallek told the Washington Examiner.
Yet, the George Washington University professor said he didn’t believe Biden would drop out of contention before Super Tuesday, which takes place on March 3, when Democrats in 14 states weigh in on who they want to be the party’s next standard-bearer, since it was “only a few days” after South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary election. But, he noted that, if that were the case, Delaware’s 36-year senator “would have to mount an incredible recovery.”
The Brooking Institution’s Darrell West disagreed, arguing that Biden required a victory in South Carolina “by a comfortable margin” because he “made electability the centerpiece of his candidacy,” and resources would be stretched competing in Super Tuesday states without funding and strong, positive national media coverage.
“Losing South Carolina would be the death knell for his candidacy as his money would dry up, and it would be difficult to continue to run. If Sanders wins South Carolina, he will have a lot of momentum going into Super Tuesday,” West wrote in an email.
Though he’s been criticized for his grassroots organization in the state, South Carolina’s significance to the Biden playbook was evident on the night of the New Hampshire primary when he left before results were announced so he could attend a rally in Columbia. Not taking Nevada, placing a distant second to Bernie Sanders, also raised the stakes.
Polling last summer gave Biden a 30 percentage point advantage on his closest rival, boosted by the state’s influential black community, which shares an affinity with the two-term No. 2 to former President Barack Obama, the country’s first African American commander in chief. But, as the race wore on, that lead has been chipped away after stumbles on the campaign trail and at the debates, which was exacerbated by opponents such as Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer bombarding South Carolina’s airwaves with advertising touting their own platforms.
Five days before Saturday’s election, Biden is now in front by an average of 5.1 percentage points, pipping Sanders for front-runner status, 26.8% of the vote to 21.7%, according to RealClearPolitics data. Steyer is performing next best at 14.7% support. Bloomberg isn’t running in the state.
In the meantime, Biden is doing his best to project confidence.
“Y’all did it for me,” he said in Las Vegas last Saturday after Nevada caucus outcomes began to crystallize. “Now, we’re going onto South Carolina and win, and then we’re going to take this back!”
