Some of the 12 Democratic candidates who will take the Democratic debate stage on Oct. 15 will likely not make the stage for the November debate when the number of qualifying candidates will likely shrink to 10 candidates or fewer.
The Democratic National Committee has consistently raised debate qualification thresholds, cutting the number of candidates from 20 over two nights in June and July to 10 on one night in September. The October debate had the same standards as the September debate, allowing billionaire businessman Tom Steyer and Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard to make the cut for next week’s debate.
To qualify for the November debate, candidates must surpass 165,000 individual donors plus a polling threshold of 3% or higher support in at least four DNC-approved polls or 5% or higher support in at least two early voting state polls. Candidates who are on the edge of qualification standards, though, appear more likely to qualify through meeting four 3% polls rather than two 5% early state polls.
All 12 candidates who will appear in the October debate have crossed at least one qualification threshold.
Seven candidates have qualified for the November debate so far:
- Former Vice President Joe Biden
- New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker
- South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg
- California Sen. Kamala Harris
- Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders
- Businessman Tom Steyer
- Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Three candidates have at least 165,000 donors and have at least one 3% or higher qualifying poll:
- Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar
- Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke
- Tech entrepreneur Andrew Yang
Yang has three 3% or higher qualifying polls and needs one more to make the debate stage, while O’Rourke and Klobuchar each have one qualifying poll under 5%.
Two candidates have surpassed the donor threshold but have not yet received any qualifying polls:
- Former Housing Secretary Julián Castro
- Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard
The road to qualification appears to be uphill for Castro and Gabbard. Castro has not received 3% or higher support in any DNC-approved qualifying poll since early July, while Gabbard has never passed that mark in DNC qualifying polls.
All other candidates have not announced surpassing the 165,000 donor threshold or received any qualifying polls, including spiritual author Marianne Williamson, Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet, Montana Gov. Steve Bullock, Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan, and former Maryland Rep. John Delaney.
The deadline for qualification is one week before the November debate, but the date has not yet been announced.
[Opinion: November’s debate spells death for Beto O’Rourke’s campaign]
