DES MOINES, Iowa — For a candidate whose campaign has repeatedly said he doesn’t need to win Iowa to secure the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination, Joe Biden is spending a lot of time in the state.
So far, Biden’s Iowa push has seen some returns. On Monday, a poll of Iowa Democrats found former Vice President Joe Biden leading the field with 24% support, a 5-point increase since placing second in a November survey by the same group. But others, such as the latest Des Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom poll, show that his lead is anything but sure.
That poll of likely Democratic caucusgoers in the state showed Biden in fourth place at just 15% support, behind former South Bend, Indiana, Pete Buttigieg at 16%. Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders led the pack at 20%, with Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 17%.
Those close to the former vice president insist they are unconcerned with how their candidate will fare in the Iowa caucuses, confidently predicting that large-margin wins in South Carolina and on Super Tuesday would be sufficient to cut his rivals off.
The campaign has shed its previous carefully cultivated, carefree attitude about Iowa. Biden’s super PAC has spent $2.3 million flooding airwaves with advertisements since October, which, combined with the campaign’s own $1.8 million in spending, means Biden and his supporters have spent more money on television advertisements in Iowa than any other campaign. Both Sanders and Buttigieg are tied for second at $3.9 million in ad spending.
A poor finish would be reminiscent of Biden’s last two White House bids, which ended in disaster before or immediately after the Iowa caucuses. In 2008, Biden placed fifth in the state with less than 1% of the vote.
And a loss in Iowa could also affect the New Hampshire primary, which Biden has repeatedly proclaimed he would win. But Biden, 77, also has signs of support from New Hampshire Democrats, as a Monday poll by Franklin Pierce University, the Boston Herald, and NBC10 Boston shows a narrow lead over Sanders and Warren: 26%, a 2-point bump over the same poll’s showing in October and ahead of Sanders’s 22% and Warren’s 18%.
Support for Sanders, 78, in New Hampshire remained steady since October, but Warren, 70, whose White House campaign began to falter in the fall after her backpedal on Medicare for All, plummeted 7 percentage points in contrast with her earlier 25% of the vote.
The other top contender in the Democratic primary, Pete Buttigieg, 37, dropped from 9% last October to 7% in January. The Franklin Pierce University poll, put in the field by RKM Research and Communications, questioned 434 likely Democratic primary voters over the phone between Jan. 8 and Jan. 12, 2020. Its findings have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.7 percentage points, given its relatively small sample size.
Going 0-2 before his firewall of South Carolina, those close to Biden have said, could lead to a death spiral of declining fundraising and support. Biden’s central campaign message, that he is the most electable candidate to take on President Trump, would also be undermined by his inability to win over his party’s voters in a primary. All of this would happen while Sanders has been aggressively courting Biden’s voters.
Biden’s campaign has, in recent weeks, announced a number of endorsements from heavy hitters such as former Gov. Tom Vilsack. On Jan. 2, Biden’s campaign announced the first Iowa congressional endorsement, from Democratic Rep. Abby Finkenauer. On Monday, Biden announced the endorsement of Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is the only official in the state’s history to serve in the office for 10 terms.
Joining Biden on the Iowa campaign trail recently is also former Secretary of State John Kerry, who announced his endorsement of Biden in the state last December. Kerry, a former senator who was the Democratic nominee for president in 2004, won the Iowa caucus that year in a surprise upset.
