The boss published some thoughts on Donald Trump’s chances on Twitter Monday morning. He explained why Trump’s messaging, though at a “6th-grade level,” could prove to work well for him.
Read his thoughts here:
1. Driving back Friday from Cleveland, I stopped to look at local paper headlines in OH & PA. All were version of “Trump: I’m With You,”
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
2. Or, “Trump: I’m the Law and Order Candidate.” Or, “Trump: I’m Your Voice.” Or, “Trump: I’ll Bring Change,” or the like.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
3. The 6th-grade level of his speech, the fact it was a collection of assertions & sound bites, made it tedious & annoying to listen to…
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
4. But in terms of clips played on radio & TV the next day, and paper headlines, he conveyed his message: Law & Order; Change; He’s for You.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
5. Hillary’s challenge: What’s their message? It’s that TRUMP IS BAD AND SCARY. (Which I agree with.) But is that enough?…
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
6. Because in a change environment, it is a HUGE advantage to be the candidate of change, even problematic change. Cf. 1980, 1992, 2008.
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
7. The counter-example is 1988, where VP Bush’s convention speech was able to both build on Reagan’s popularity and suggest enough change…
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
8. But the environment was overwhelmingly wrong-track in ’88, and Dukakis fought back less effectively than Trump may…
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
9. I’m not saying Trump will win or even should be favored to win. He is a VERY flawed candidate. But in such a wrong-track environment,…
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
10. (concl.) Trump could win. When I hear some Dems, it reminds me of the 92 Bush WH: “We deserve to win (we think). Therefore we will win.”
— Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) July 25, 2016
