President Trump is wavering on criminal justice reform after opponents of a House-passed bill now before the Senate warned that a Willie Horton-style scandal could blow up his 2020 re-election bid.
Horton committed a series of violent crimes in the 1980s while on furlough from a Massachusetts prison under a program overseen by Gov. Michael Dukakis. The Democrat wasn’t directly responsible, but then-Vice President George H.W. Bush effectively deployed the issue against him in the 1988 presidential race, and some Republicans are cautioning Trump the same could happen to him if federal prisoners released under the First Step Act commit heinous crimes during the 2020 campaign.
Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., a close Trump ally leading the effort to sink the legislation, has repeatedly told the president and colleagues on Capitol Hill that voters will blame them for any crimes committed by convicts granted early release as part of the First Step Act, a proposal to overhaul the federal prison system and reform sentencing guidelines. Sources tell the Washington Examiner that they believe this argument is having an impact.
“He’s torn,” a Republican insider who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly said, describing Trump’s position. “He really wants to do it but this is making it hard for him.” White House officials did not respond to requests for comment. But late Friday afternoon, the president posted a tweet lobbying for the bill’s passage and encouraging Senate Majority Leader, R-Ky., to bring the it up for a vote. “Go for it Mitch!” he tweeted.
The First Step Act continues to enjoy strong support inside the West Wing. Proponents of the package are saying they have detected no change of heart from Trump, and supporters of the bill on Capitol Hill say a vigorous lobbying effort by the administration, led by Jared Kushner, the president’s son-in-law and senior adviser, continues apace.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a key supporter, tweeted on Friday morning: “Just talked with President @realDonaldTrump. He strongly believes criminal justice reform bill must pass now. He also indicated he supports putting criminal justice reform bill on year-end spending bill which must include MORE wall funding.”
But Trump, who styles himself a law-and-order president, has grown conflicted over the politics of the legislation, sources say, even as he continues to back the effort to get it through the Senate and to his desk before the 115th Congress expires in January. If the issue is bumped to 2019, the newly minted Democratic majority in the House could load up a new version with provisions unacceptable to Senate Republicans — and the White House.
As it is, Senate Republicans are split, with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., being one of the naysayers. McConnell isn’t a big fan of the First Step Act itself, and he is worried the debate would eat up the limited floor time available during the post-election, lame duck period, with a must-pass government funding bill, the farm bill, and judicial nominations yet to proceed.
The Republicans hold 51 seats and among them, there are 28 who support criminal justice reform, Sen. Mike Lee, R-Utah, a sponsor of the bill, said Thursday. That’s more than half the conference, or a “majority of the majority, but not enough for McConnell’s taste. His preference for bringing bills to the floor is that they have the backing of at least 40 Republicans.
“It’s rock solid,” Lee said, referring to the whip count. “We’ve got 28 Republicans and 49 Democrats on the bill as is. This bill will pass. It will pass with 77 votes if you get it to the floor.”
Graham said an additional ten Republicans are on the fence but leaning yes. He said waiting until next year to take up the measure “makes it really difficult,” in part because the new Democratic House Majority may rewrite it to make it even less appealing to the GOP.
Graham said Thursday Congress should tack the measure onto the must-pass spending bill. “I’m confident if we ever had a vote we’d get a majority of our conference and then some,” he said.
Republicans opposed to the First Step Act the legislation have been vocal in denouncing it, and some are high ranking or have close relationships with Trump that they are trying to leverage to get him to back off. Cotton, running point on that front, has warned the legislation would cut the sentences of the nation’s worst offenders, including violent criminals and drug dealers.
The National Sheriff’s Association has called for changes to the bill to ensure such criminals don’t get reduced sentences. Republican leaders in the Senate have found these arguments convincing.
“I have some concerns with it and I’m hoping those will get to be addressed,” said Sen. John Thune of South Dakota, the No. 3 ranking Republican who moves up one spot, to the majority whip post, next month. “I think everybody would still like to get to yes, but our members still have concerns and reservations.”
Steven Nelson contributed to this report.
