Rudy vs. Fred, Cont.

The new issue of First Things features a symposium on the 2008 presidential election. Nat Hentoff, John J. DiIulio Jr. and Weekly Standard contributing editor (and First Things editor) Joseph Bottum all contribute. Bottum’s piece contains this interesting analysis:

Which leaves Fred Thompson. He does seem genuinely Reaganesque – Reagan-lite, yes, but with some of that old great-communicator touch and Teflon feel that Ronald Reagan had. And on the combined issues of church-state relations, abortion, and economics, he seems (for the little we know) the best of the major candidates. Or, at least, so far. Rudy Giuliani will have to run the table on Super Tuesday, winning nearly every primary on February 5 after losing all the ones before. Maybe he can do it. But the deeper into the winter the campaign goes, the more Thompson benefits. A Fred Thompson nomination, a slim election victory over Hillary Clinton, a stealth pro-lifer slipped on the Supreme Court through a Democratic Senate – that weak scenario is about the best a social conservative can hope for today. Everything else is bad. Very bad.

It’s not guaranteed that Giuliani will lose every single one of the pre-Feb. 5 contests, however. Of course, if the former mayor doesn’t place in the top three in Iowa and/or the top two in New Hampshire, his campaign probably will be, for all intents and purposes, finished. Giuliani must sense that as well – which is why he’s been spending a lot of time in New Hampshire. Bottum’s fundamental analysis seems about right, though. We may be heading into a Rudy vs. Fred showdown. And based on the duo’s brief but tendentious exchange during the most recent GOP debate, that would be quite a fight.

Rudy vs. Fred, Cont.

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