Four days after the Iraqi government, with the backing of the full spectrum of the political parties, moved to bar the Sadrist movement from running in provincial elections if it failed to disband the Mahdi Army, Muqtada al Sadr received yet another blow, this time from the clerical establishment. Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior most Shia cleric in Iraq, has said Sadr should disarm his Mahdi Army as “the law is the only authority in the country.” Sistani, who has been loath to weigh in on political issues over the past, has clearly backed Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki and his government’s offensive in Basra. With the political parties in line and Sistani backing him, Maliki is now moving to enforce the edict that Basra be free of heavy and medium weapons in the hands of militias. The media was quick to call the Basra offensive a major failure for Maliki and his government and continues to do so. Yet Sadr was the one who declared a ceasefire and withdrew his forces from the streets, Sadr will be barred from elections if he doesn’t disband the Mahdi Army, and the Iraqi military is now moving to disarm his militia. All the while, his forces are being targeted in Baghdad. And Sadr was also forced to cancel a planned demonstration in Baghdad after moving the location from Najaf to Baghdad earlier in the week. Sadr claimed the Iraqi security forces blocked the movement of his people, but Sadr’s past demonstrations have had poor showings. Sadr faces a real dilemma over the next few weeks. If he chooses to keep the Mahdi Army, he has become an official enemy of the state and his political party will be neutered. The U.S. will back the Maliki government in a move against the Mahdi Army. If he chooses to disband Mahdi, he will also be significantly weakened. Many Sadrists and Mahdi Army commanders already resent the ceasefire. Sadr can only hope for some sort of negotiated settlement. But the Maliki government is operating from a position of strength, not weakness. So again, how did Sadr benefit from the confrontation in Basra?
