Tuesday’s speaker of the House election is fast approaching, and the path for House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) to enter the vote with enough backing to claim the gavel remains murky.
There are five scenarios that could play out on the first day of the 118th Congress, in which Republicans will have a slim majority in the House. McCarthy needs the support of at least half the present voting representatives to win the speakership, and since all the Democrats are almost guaranteed to vote against him, he can only lose a handful of Republican votes.
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Five conservatives — former House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Biggs (R-AZ) and Reps. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Bob Good (R-VA), Ralph Norman (R-SC), and Matt Rosendale (R-MT) — voiced that they would not support McCarthy on the floor and would continue to vote as a bloc in the weeks leading up to the start of the new Congress. Thirty-six GOP lawmakers voted against him during their internal conference election on Nov. 15, leaving McCarthy to sway a sizable group of critics.
Here are five ways the race could play out on Tuesday:
1. McCarthy wins
McCarthy’s weeks of negotiating, concessions, and meetings might ultimately pay off if he can make his naysayers happy with a deal other than him dropping out of the race. One of the big sticking points is over lowering the threshold to bring the motion to vacate the chair to floor. This means a fewer number of representatives from the majority party would be needed to attempt to impeach the speaker of the House.
If he pulls it off, congressional business would continue on schedule.
2. McCarthy loses the first ballot but gains votes in subsequent voting rounds
His naysayers could hold out during the first round of voting and prevent McCarthy from reaching the 218 necessary votes. He might be able to sway them with further concessions and win in the second round.
This could delay the start of proper business if it take hours or days to continue negotiations. The House hasn’t cast multiple ballots to select a speaker since 1923, and the longest-lasting speaker vote happened in 1855 when the chamber took two months to select who would hold the gavel.
Both pro- and anti-McCarthy factions of the GOP said they are prepared for the process to take multiple ballots if needed, and it’s unclear which side would ultimately cave first.
3. McCarthy drops out
Without a clear path forward, McCarthy could decide to cut his losses and drop out of the election. This could happen before Tuesday and give the party limited time to figure out another candidate to back or during a multiballot voting process that would leave them scrambling to figure out an alternative.
4. Republicans rally around another candidate, such as Scalise, McHenry, or a centrist
Conservative critics of McCarthy have asserted that the party will rally around another lawmaker but have largely remained mum about who they will push for if McCarthy ultimately can’t prevail. Several Republicans have speculated that House Minority Whip Steve Scalise (R-LA) is a likely candidate due to his strong relationships with the different factions of the conference, with House Financial Services ranking member Patrick McHenry’s (R-NC), House Republican Conference Vice Chairman Mike Johnson’s (R-LA), Republican Study Committee Chairman Jim Banks’s (R-IN), and House Rules Committee Ranking Member Tom Cole’s (R-OK) names also being floated as possible contenders. Others have argued it could be a dark horse candidate.
5. Democrats help McCarthy
Democrats could theoretically vote present or walk off the floor for the vote to bring the threshold down from 218, but multiple senior Democratic sources said that is highly unlikely due to McCarthy’s contentious relationship with members across the aisle following the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol.
Democrats casting their vote for Rep. Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) is expected to be a historic moment for the party as it ushers in a new generation of leadership, with the New York Democrat slated to become the first black lawmaker to lead a party in either chamber. The monumental nature of the vote also makes it less likely that members will cross the aisle to assist the California Republican. Democrats are also looking to paint Republicans as chaotic and unable to lead, with some noting that intraparty tensions within the GOP demonstrated on the floor could help boost their cause in 2024 as they look to take back the majority.
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According to one senior source familiar with the procedure, the clerk from the previous Congress will preside over the chamber, with members and members-elect acting as “a majoritarian body” since no rules package will have been passed and no speaker elected to take charge. Since the clerk cannot call for a recess, if members want to break to meet and discuss a path forward, “a member would have to make a motion to adjourn the House to a time set and then that motion could be voted on if someone called for a vote.” If the motion is not agreed upon by a majority, they will remain in session, with the clerk continuing to call the role for speaker.
Republicans will have 222 members and Democrats 213, an inverse of the Democratic majority in the 117th Congress.
