Thousands of conservative activists are gathered here in the nation’s capitol this weekend for the annual Conservative Political Action Conference. A chief topic of discussion among attendees, bloggers and mainstream media analysts is the apparent paucity of a genuine conservative candidate among the credible contenders for the GOP presidential nomination.
Just before CPAC attendees assembled, Robert Novak spotlighted a recent push-poll survey in which former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore highlighted the problem for many conservatives. The poll was conducted among Iowa GOPers and on the first go-round produced the expected result, with Sen. John McCain, R-AZ, at 33 percent, former New York City Mayor Rudy Guliani at 31.5 percent, and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney garnering 8.8 percent. This trio, of course, is the “Big Three” of the GOP race. Gilmore at this point is virtually invisible.
But the push-poll survey results changed dramatically when respondents were apprised of elements of the Big Three’s voting records and other factors viewed negatively by conservatives and they were also reminded of positive elements of Gilmore’s record. The combative former Virginia governor surged to the front.
Novak notes that push-pull suveys – where surveyers prompt respondents with carefully selected pieces of information – are considered by professionals to be highly unreliable indicators. But in this case, the results just may point to a fundamental dynamic within the GOP race that is being missed by analysts trapped in the conventional wisdom framework of the Big Three.
The fact is Gilmore can make a compelling case as THE conservative candidate in the field. I first pondered this very question five years ago during a Heritage Foundation seminar for the media at the Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado on the first anniversary of 9/11.
Gilmore was the luncheon speaker and he delivered an impressively argued warning about the risks to American civil liberties of allowing the federal government to assume too much power to combat terrorism.
Gilmore’s warning came at a time when conservatives on Capitol Hill and elsewhere were divided over the Bush administration’s aggressive assumption of investigative powers via the Patriot Act and other highly controversial measures.
Listening to Gilmore, I thought to myself “the guy is tough, he has guts and he stands up for the right principles.” I wondered then if Gilmore would ever consider becoming a presidential candidate.
His campaign has failed to gain traction so far this year but that doesn’t mean it won’t because on closer analysis most of the vital elements are there to make Gilmore the sleeper candidate on the Right. Here are six of those elements:
First, Gilmore has the best record among all the GOP contenders on the tax issue. He was elected governor in 1997 on a campaign based almost entirely on his promise to eliminate Virginia’s hated car tax. He used the car tax issue masterfully to transform a race in which he was the clear underdog to a popular Northern Virginia Democrat at a time when that region of the state was becoming a dominant part of the state’s electorate.
Not only did Gilmore win the governorship, he also brought in Virginia’s first-ever GOP legislative majority. Ultimately, thanks to opposition from key members of Virginia’s well-known RINOs, Gilmore was only partially successful in repealing the car tax. Even so, he secured the largest tax cut in state history and he demonstrated yet again that taxes are the sharp end of the conservative legion’s stick in the electoral battles over Big Government.
As governor, Gilmore also emerged as an effective national voice on behalf of keeping the Internet a tax-free zone, both as an economic measure and as an essential policy to encouraged technological innovation and progress. He was an ardent foe of proposals in Congress to start taxing commerce on the Internet.
Second, Gilmore is known as a tough, combative figure. Conventional wisdom would dismiss him as too combative, but, in an era of highly motivated and intensively partisan Democratic ascendancy led by Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, nobody should be surprised if a typical Washington Establishment Mr. Nice Guy GOPer gets taken to the cleaners in 2008, just as they were in 1996 and 1992.
Many conservatives believe the GOP’s only hope for winning in 2008 is in nominating an aggressive, hard-nosed conservative like Gilmore with a proven record of and temprament for challenging Democratic nostrums head-on and for giving no quarter when the stakes are down.
Third, at a time of increasing public concern about the inability of public schools to provide adequate educations despite spiralling budgets, Gilmore overcame ingrained and sustained opposition from the teachers unions to achieve Virginia’s Standards of Learning, which many conservatives view as a model of the approach.
Fourth, before he was governor of Virginia, Gilmore was the state’s attorney-general. He knows the crucial role for conservatives and liberals of judges and trial lawyers in contemporary public policy and especially in the Democratic agenda, and how to combat it. He also recognizes the essential requirement of a GOP president nominating top quality legal minds who are also true conservatives for federal judgeships.
Which brings us to reason number five: Gilmore offers some of the key advantages of Guliani without the baggage. On judges, for example, Guliani has sought to appease conservatives by promising to nominate the right kinds of judges. But Politico’s Ben Smith took a detailed look at Guliani’s record in this area and found a distinct tilt to the left.
Similarly, Guliani offers voters a record as a successful prosecutor of organized crime, but so does Gilmore offer a solid record first as attorney general and then as governor of building jails, prosecuting criminals and opposing liberal leniency in sentencing and punishment policies.
Even on Guliani’s signature issue – his courageous performance on 9/11 – Gilmore can point to his success as chairman in 1999 of the Congressional Advisory Panel to Assess Domestic Response Capabilities for Terrorism Involving Weapons of Mass Destruction, known more informally as the “Gilmore Commission.”
True, chairing a respected national commission pales by comparison to the importance of Guliani’s remarkable, visibile leadership at the Twin Towers disaster. But it doesn’t require listening long to Gilmore discuss terrorism and how to fight it to realize he is extremely knowledgable and articulate on the issue.
Finally, there is the issue of personal baggage. Guliani’s controversial personal life was often headlined in the New York tabloids and is sure to provide abundant fodder for Democratic opposition researchers should the former mayor become the GOP nominee.
By contrast, Gilmore has never been linked to any kind of personal scandal and gives every indication of being the product of a stable family life. He and Guliani are also widely seen as representing the opposite ends of the spectrum on major social issues, including abortion, sexuality and the counter culture.
To be sure, Gilmore faces enormous challenges, not the least of which is his low national profile in recent years, his lackluster performance at the Republican National Committee and questions about his ability to work effectively with the Washington GOP Establishment.
But if Gilmore finds a way to penetrate the Big Three’s current lock on attention and project himself as the true conservative in the GOP race, he could become the Right’s sleeper candidate of 2008.
UPDATE: Gilmore Laid Out Strategy for Bloggers
Rob Bluey of The Heritage Foundation’s Center for Media and Public Policy hosts a weekly meeting of bloggers and had Gilmore as guest speaker earlier this week. Go here for Rob’s account of what sounds like an intriguing session. Unfortunately, I couldn’t be there because of some out-patient surgery that had to be done that day.
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