The senior Republican strategist charged with guiding his party to a Senate takeover in the midterm elections predicted that the GOP would win control of the chamber Nov. 4.
Rob Collins, executive director of the NRSC, told reporters Thursday that he expected his party to win at minimum the six seats they need to assume command of the Senate when the 114th Congress convenes in January.
Several races remain close, Collins emphasized, and Democrats continue to run strong campaigns, as illustrated by their gains in Georgia’s Republican-held open seat. Democrats are threatening to extend that race to a January runoff.
But just less than three weeks before Election Day, Collins said he likes the Republicans’ position. The NRSC sees a playing field that is as deep as 10 Democratic-held seats, with opportunities in key swing states like Colorado and Iowa.
Democrats have led in the money chase, but Collins said Republicans have closed the resource gap enough to ensure they are able to capitalize on the favorable political winds.
“We are going to win the Senate. I feel very good about that,” Collins said. “We’re going to take it on election night.”
This isn’t first time in recent memory that the NRSC felt confident about Republican prospects to win the Senate majority, though it has fallen short at times.
In 2010, the party gained seven seats but left three winnable races on the table. In 2012, the Republicans lost two seats after failing to win contests in the GOP-leaning states of Indiana, Missouri and North Dakota. The Democrats were credited with nominating better candidates and running superior campaigns.
Democrats are confident that history is on track to repeat itself, and it’s why they remain optimistic about retaining the Senate majority despite a poor political environment for their party.
“The NRSC also predicted they would win the majority in 2010 and 2012. The truth is Democrats are running smarter campaigns with better candidates and remain positioned to hold the majority,” said Justin Barasky, spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Indeed, late in the 2014 cycle, problems have popped up for Republicans in seats thought to be easy winners.
In Kansas, Sen. Pat Roberts is fending off a vigorous challenge from independent businessman Greg Orman. In South Dakota, former governor Mike Rounds is in a competitive three-way contest with Democrat Rick Weiland and independent Larry Pressler, who served in the Senate as a Republican until he was ousted in 1996.
And in Georgia, Democrat Michelle Nunn has shrunk businessman David Perdue’s lead and could force a runoff. Just three weeks ago, Republicans were confident that Perdue would win by more than 50 percent on Election Day.
Collins acknowledged the hiccups, but said Republicans were on track to right the ship in those three races, although he conceded Georgia might end up in a runoff, while laying out additional reasons behind his bold prediction.
• The conditions. Collins said Republican voters are more enthusiastic than Democratic voters to the tune of 12 percentage points. In 2010, a historic wave election for the GOP, the party’s enthusiasm gap over the Democrats was 14 points.
• The ground game. Collins said Democrats still hold a technological and operational advantage over the Republicans in terms of targeting and turning out voters. This cycle, the DSCC invested $60 million in its ground game. But Collins said Republicans have made substantial improvements this cycle, putting the party in a much better position to compete in razor thin races where get-out-the-vote efforts can be decisive. “We have made a major cultural change in how we run our ground games,” he said.
• The playing field. Republicans have been polling ahead in swing states like Colorado and Iowa, and appear to have solidified leads in the red states of Alaska and Arkansas. The contests in Montana and West Virginia are considered slam-dunks for the Republicans. Republicans expect Louisiana to go a December runoff, but are confident they will win that race going away. Democrats hold all seven of these seats.
Additionally, Collins said things are headed in the right direction for Republicans in South Dakota, where the party is trying to flip a Democratic-held seat, and Kansas. Internal Republican polling has had Roberts up a few points over Orman, reversing a previous deficit.
Kentucky represents the only other Republican-held seat that Democrats are seriously challenging. But the DSCC has no plans to advertise there at this time, a sign of waning confidence. Collins said that Minority Leader Mitch McConnell is on track to sew that contest up.
“That race is not over in regards to dollars — it’s over politically,” he said.
