House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi has emerged as the Republicans’ chief weapon against President Trump’s unpopularity in targeted swing districts.
Midterm elections are historically fertile ground for Congress’ minority party, especially when the president isn’t polling well. But Republicans believe they can counteract Trump’s drag by running a relentless campaign against Pelosi.
The California Democrat’s personal favorability ratings are underwater in nearly a dozen seats where vulnerable Republicans are running for re-election, according to surveys conducted for Congressional Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis.
“During the 2018 cycle, CLF will spend millions of dollars highlighting Nancy Pelosi’s toxic agenda and reminding voters across the country that Democratic candidates are nothing more than rubber stamps for her out-of-touch, liberal policies,” CLF executive director Corry Bliss wrote in a memorandum issued to the media.
Bliss executed this strategy in Georgia’s 6th congressional district, and credits the approach for pulling now-Rep. Karen Handel across the finish line in a highly contested special election. The upscale suburban seat has been in Republican hands for 40 years, but voted for Trump in November by only 1.5 percentage points over Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Democrats had high hopes there, but Pelosi’s favorability was a low 31 percent, a hindrance for Democratic nominee Jon Ossoff.
In polling conducted for CLF over the past eight weeks in 11 districts Democrats are targeting in the midterm, Pelosi’s job favorability didn’t surpass 37.2 percent. Pelosi hit that mark in Republican Rep. Carlos Curbelo’s South Florida district, won by Clinton with 56.7 percent of the vote. Otherwise, Pelosi’s numbers were mired in the low 30s.
The polls conducted in each district for CLF were done by GOP pollsters American Viewpoint, GS Strategy Group, OnMessage Inc., Public Opinion Strategies, and Tarrance Group. Each featured a standard sample size of 400 respondents, with an error margin of 4.9 percentage points. The findings were as follows:
- In Republican Rep. Jeff Denham’s 10th district of California, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 34 percent. Clinton won the district with 48.5 percent.
- In Republican Rep. David Valadeo’s 21st district of California, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 31 percent. Clinton won the district with 55.2 percent.
- In Republican Rep. Steve Knight’s 25th district of California, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 32 percent. Clinton won the district with 50.3 percent.
- In Republican Rep. Ed Royce’s 39th district of California, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 30 percent. Clinton won the district with 51.5 percent.
- In Republican Rep. David Young’s 3rd district of Iowa, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 30.9 percent. Clinton lost the district with 45 percent.
- In Republican Rep. Erik Paulsen’s 3rd district of Minnesota, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 32 percent. Clinton won the district with 50.8 percent.
- In Republican Rep. Greg Gianforte’s at-large district, covering Montana, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 31 percent. Clinton lost the state with 35.9 percent. Gianforte won a May special election to fill this seat.
- In Republican Rep. Don Bacon’s 2nd district of Nebraska, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 30.5 percent. Clinton lost the district with 46 percent.
- In Republican Rep. John Katko’s 24th district of New York, Pelosi’s favorable rating was 33.5 percent. Clinton won the district with 48.9 percent.
