Democratic nominee Joe Biden’s path to the White House lies in swing-state voters’ hands, according to one election forecaster.
States won narrowly by President Trump in 2016 are likely to determine the outcome of the election next month. Trump won Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Ohio, Texas, and Iowa by less than 10 points, but key counties may turn their support this time around to Biden.
Dave Wasserman, House editor of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, recently wrote in a New York Times op-ed about 10 bellwether counties that could provide an opening for Biden in November, especially as polls continue to show him leading, both nationally and in key battleground states.
“To win the White House, Mr. Biden will need to flip some combination of the 10 states Mr. Trump carried by less than 10 points in 2016,” Wasserman wrote. “Mr. Biden has several paths to victory, and the first three states alone (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin), in addition to every state won by Hillary Clinton, would be enough to put him into the Oval Office.”
Wasserman mentioned five counties in the Frost Belt, including Kent County in Michigan, Erie County in Pennsylvania, and Sauk County in Wisconsin, which all lean toward Biden, as well as Ohio’s Wood County and Iowa’s Marshall County, which are toss-ups.
In the Sun Belt, Maricopa County in Arizona and Pinellas County in Florida lean toward Biden while Peach County in Georgia, New Hanover County in North Carolina, and Collin County in Texas are toss-ups.
Kent County, which houses Education Secretary Betsy DeVos’s family company Amway, was won by Trump by just 3 points four years after Mitt Romney carried it by 8 points in 2012. In the 2018 gubernatorial contest, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer won the county by just 4 points.
“Biden has a strong chance to win it in November,” Wasserman wrote. “Private polls of the third congressional district, which covers much of Kent County, show Mr. Biden with a slight lead.”
Trump won Erie County by just about 2 points, disrupting a trend of Democratic victories for decades. Wasserman predicted the president will have to win the county again in order to carry Pennsylvania, which has 20 crucial electoral votes.
In Wisconsin, Trump flipped Sauk County by just 0.4 points after it went twice for Barack Obama. In 2018, Sauk County went for Democratic Gov. Tony Evers by 10 points.
“Mr. Trump’s campaign is counting on its door-knocking efforts, in contrast to Mr. Biden’s mostly virtual outreach, to keep it red,” Wasserman wrote. “But Wisconsin’s expanding COVID-19 ‘red zone’ could throw a wrench in the Republican ground game.”
One county that may give Trump an advantage is Vigo County in Indiana, which is the nation’s only county that has voted for the winner of every presidential race since 1956, which put Dwight Eisenhower in power.
In 2016, Vigo County broke for Trump by 15 points, and Wasserman wrote that it is likely he’ll take the county again, even if he loses the presidency.
