Does this week’s battle between Mississippi State and Alabama involve the nation’s #1 and #3 teams, or #1 and #5? Well, it depends whether you ask the College Football Playoff (CFP) Selection Committee or the Anderson & Hester Computer Rankings. Pretty much across the board, the former has a lower regard for teams in the Deep South and a higher regard for those in Big Ten and Big 12 country. This is despite the fact that (A) teams from the Deep South have won eight consecutive college football national championships and (B) the mighty Southeastern Conference (with a .691 rating in the Anderson & Hester Rankings, more than .100 higher than the Big Ten or Big 12) is having its best season since the 20th century.
The SEC has a 43-3 win-loss record in non-conference games so far this season, and the amazing SEC West is actually undefeated in non-conference play. Yet the 12-member CFP Selection Committee doesn’t seem sufficiently impressed. Aside from consensus #1 Mississippi State, all of the highest-ranked SEC teams fare better in the Anderson & Hester Rankings than at the hands of the Committee: #3 (in the A&H Rankings) Alabama is #5 in the CFP Rankings; #6 Auburn is #9; #9 Ole Miss is #10; and #11 Georgia is #15.
But it isn’t just SEC teams that aren’t striking the Committee’s fancy — it’s another team from the Deep South: Florida State. The (9-0) Seminoles have beaten two current-top-20 teams: Notre Dame (#12 in the A&H Rankings, #18 in the CFP Rankings) and (#18 in A&H/#19 in CFP) Clemson. The (9-1) Oregon Ducks have also beaten — at best — two current-top-20 teams: (#7 in A&H/#11 in CFP) UCLA and (#27/#12) Michigan State. Oregon also lost, however — at home — to #14 (in both rankings) Arizona, while Florida State is undefeated. Yet the committee ranks 1-loss Oregon over the unbeaten Seminoles.
Under the old Bowl Championship Series system, if the season were to have ended today, the National Championship Game would clearly have matched the nation’s only two major undefeated teams: Mississippi State and Florida State. That pairing would have been the consensus choice for the title game, with those two teams being #1 or #2 both in the subjective polls and in four of the six BCS computer rankings (Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe).
It’s quite striking, then, that if the season were to end today, the CFP’s 12-member committee would disagree that Florida State belongs in that game. Thankfully the committee has four spots to fill, not just two. It seems to need the margin of error.
While underrating teams from Deep South, the committee is overrating teams from the Big Ten and Big 12. For example, #8 (in the A&H Rankings) TCU is #4 in the committee’s rankings, #10 Ohio State is #8, #15 Baylor is #7, and #27 Michigan State is #12. The committee’s fondness for teams from the Midwest or Great Plains, however, doesn’t extend to Notre Dame. The Irish, #12 in the Anderson & Hester Rankings, have gone 7-2 versus the nation’s 17th-toughest schedule to date, losing only to #2 Florida State (#3 in the CFP Rankings) and #5 Arizona State (#6 in the CFP Rankings), with both games having been on the road. Notre Dame is ranked as high as #10 and no worse than #16 by A.P., the coaches, Anderson & Hester, Billingsley, Colley, and Wolfe. Yet the committee ranks the Irish 18th.
But getting back to the committee’s treatment of SEC teams, let’s compare the resumes of Auburn and Ohio State. The Tigers have beaten (#9 in A&H/#10 in CFP) Mississippi, #16/#13 Kansas St., and #17 LSU — with two of those three wins having been on the road. The Buckeyes haven’t beaten a single team in the Anderson & Hester Rankings’ top-25 and have beaten only one team (#12 Michigan State) in the CFP Rankings’ top-25. Auburn has lost to #1 Mississippi State (on the road) and #24 Texas A&M. Ohio State has lost — at home — to #69 Virginia Tech, a team that is 3-5 when not playing Ohio State. So (even just using the CFP Rankings), Auburn is 1 game above .500 versus the top-25 (3-2) and perfect otherwise. Ohio State is 1 game above .500 versus the top-25 (1-0) but lost to a team that has otherwise beaten only North Carolina, Western Michigan, and William & Mary. Yet the committee ranks Ohio State ahead of Auburn.
Part of the problem seems to be that, after having done a decent job in their first week — when they appear to have been more focused on teams’ season-long results — the committee’s 12 members seem to be letting themselves get far too swayed by the last game they saw. Auburn lost on Saturday to Texas A&M in the Tigers’ worst game of the season. Ohio State won on Saturday at Michigan State (a team with only 2 wins versus the current Anderson & Hester top-80 but a top-12 team in the committee’s estimation) in the Buckeyes’ best game of the season. But just a week earlier, Auburn was knocking off current-#9/#10 Mississippi on the road, and just a week before that that Ohio State was being forced into double-overtime by current-#55 Penn State. In other words, the committee’s attention span seems to be about one week long. Hopefully that will change.
In the meantime, enjoy watching #3 Alabama host #1 Mississippi State on Saturday — and expect the selection committee to punish the loser much more than it will reward the winner.
Jeff Anderson is co-creator of the Anderson & Hester Computer Rankings, which were part of the BCS throughout its 16-year run and are now published by the Dallas Morning News.
