Homicides are down dramatically in the District and other cities across America at the same time many parts of the nation are experiencing the coolest summer in decades. That has some experts wondering if the big chill is allowing cooler heads to prevail on city streets.
“The hard science is not conclusive,” said George Washington University criminologist Paul Butler, a former federal prosecutor. But “it’s probably true that the cooler weather is responsible for the drop in violent crime. Any beat cop will tell you that a cooler summer means safer streets.”
Police leaders like D.C. Chief Cathy Lanier bristle at the suggestion that cool weather is chilling the bad guys out.
“It’s idiotic,” she said. “We’re working really hard.”
But the numbers are intriguing. There have been 89 killings in the District this year. That’s down more than 25 percent from last year — after two years of increases. If the trend continues, the District will have its lowest homicide count since John F. Kennedy took office. That dramatic downtown has occurred as the city has experienced an abnormally cool summer with average temperatures for May, June and July being a full three degrees below average for the past three decades.
Lanier said her efforts to improve the department’s anti-crime technology have allowed her officers to respond quickly to crimes and get the suspects before they cause more harm.
But Butler said Lanier would have a stronger case if hers was the only city experiencing a drop in crime.
“The fact that it’s L.A., New York, Philadelphia and Chicago suggests that it’s not any one police strategy,” he said. “Because all of those cities have different police chiefs and police strategies.”
» Los Angeles: Homicides down 33 percent (had 40 straight days of below-average temperatures from May to June).
» St. Louis: Homicides down 29 percent (only three days of 90-degree heat in July).
» D.C.: Homicides down 26 percent (fewest 90-degree days in May and June — two — since 1985).
» New York: Homicides down 20 percent (coolest summer in 100 years).
» Chicago: Homicides down 16 percent (coolest summer in 42 years; went through July without hitting 90 degrees for the first time in a century).
» Boston: Homicides down 10 percent (coolest June-July since 1903).
» Philadelphia: Homicides down 8 percent (coolest June and July since 2000).
According to meteorology service Accuweather, cities around the country set record lows more than 3,100 times this summer. July was the coolest measured in the U.S. by the National Weather Service in 15 years. At the same time, crime has dipped nearly everywhere.
A notable exception to the trend is Houston, which remains as soupy as ever but has seen a 11 percent drop in homicides.
Heritage Foundation criminologist Dave Muhlhausen said he “doesn’t buy into” the notion that weather and violence are related.
“I would suspect that there’s a lot of factors. We really don’t understand why homicides dip or increase,” he said.
One factor that is essential, he said, is making arrests.
“The more criminals you put behind bars, the less crime you’re going to have,” he said.
But others say the connection between the weather and violence should not be discounted. Florida International University criminal justice professor Ellen G. Cohn said there was no direct link between weather and homicides, but cooler temperatures often correlated to fewer violent crimes — and even less violent attitudes.
When it’s hot, “horn honking and property crimes are going up, with rape, riots, robberies and 911 calls in general.”
– Staff writer Freeman Klopott contributed to this story.
