It is springtime, so the “U.S. is going to attack Iran” rumors are in full bloom. With the USS Abraham Lincoln arriving in the Persian Gulf to replace the USS Harry Truman, there were three of the powerful warships in the waters off Iran for one day. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said the U.S. would keep two carriers in the gulf as a “message” to Iran. The deployment of carriers in the gulf and the U.S. military’s ire over the Iranian backing of Shia terror groups inside Iraq has fueled a new round of rumors. The Australian, based on anonymous sources, said the U.S. is preparing to conduct a “‘surgical strike’ against an insurgent training camp inside Iran if Republican Guards [sic] continue with attempts to destabilise Iraq.” [Note to Michael Smith, the Republican Guards were Saddam Hussein’s’ praetorian guard, while the Revolutionary Guards are the Iran’s elite corps.] As noted in July 2007 here, the movement of carriers into the Persian Gulf is merely a “message.” Iran should actually start to worry when there are no aircraft carriers in the Gulf, as the U.S. would seek to minimize exposure of its $9 billion capital ships during any conflict with Iran. The fact is that if the United States wanted to strike at Iranian terror camps in Khuzestan, it could do so without parking carriers in the gulf. The U.S. Navy has a wide array of submarines and cruisers equipped to launch Tomahawk missiles, while U.S. Air Force bombers can strike Iran from bases inside the US. Seymour Hersh has made a living of late off of peddling Iran attack scenarios, but none have come to pass. This latest round of springtime attack likely have no more basis in truth.
