PHOENIX — Arizona Republicans are trying to remain positive as Democrats cut into their once-massive advantage in early voting as they hope GOP Rep. Martha McSally can beat Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema to take an open Senate seat only days before the November election.
After Republicans held nearly a 12-point advantage following the first two weeks of early voting, that edge has been trimmed to less than 8 points (41.8-33.9), along with nearly 24 percent unaffiliated voters comprising the rest of the vote, making some Republicans nervous ahead of Tuesday. The early vote is expected to comprise of roughly two-thirds of the entire electorate.
“I’m optimistic, but 30 percent of this is yet to be decided,” said Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey in an interview Friday night, after he warned a crowd of Arizona Republicans that evening that “nothing has been decided yet.” “You can’t take your foot off the gas.”
One Arizona-based GOP strategist said that they would be comfortable if Republicans head into election day with a 6-7 point advantage, while a top Arizona Republican expressed hope for a 10-point margin heading into Tuesday. While the total vote has Republicans largely encouraged, some sub-sections have left them concerned, particularly that voters casting ballots for the first time are breaking for Democrats by a 2-1 margin.
McSally’s own operation has also political watchers scratching their heads as she focused intently on getting out the Republican base rather than turning toward the center after the August primary, as the late Sen. John McCain did on a number of occasions.
“He always came back to the middle because that’s where a lot of votes are,” said one Arizona-based GOP strategist, noting that McCain even cut an ad in 2010 from the border saying it was time to “complete the danged fence.”
“There was some sort of calculus made that we’re better off turning our people out,” the strategist said. “I just don’t know if there’s enough of those people.”
Throughout the final month, McSally has welcomed Republicans from across the country into Arizona to help her turn out the base, including President Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, former President George W. Bush, Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, and Mitt Romney, the favorite to succeed Sen. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, on Tuesday.
Overall, Republicans hold a 136,000-voter advantage in party registration. While the current early vote edge for Republicans is on par with the presidential early vote in 2016, it is 4 points off the normal midterm edge they have previously enjoyed.
One other area of consternation for Republicans remains the late primary McSally had to endure. With one of the latest primaries in the country — Aug. 28 — McSally did not have much time to refocus her efforts toward the general as candidates did in May primaries, such as in Indiana and West Virginia.
“It’s a fucking killer,” the strategist said.
Sinema leads the Arizona Republican by less than a single point, according to the latest RealClearPolitics average.
Part of the GOP calculus also relies on a strong performance by Ducey atop the ticket, much like Texas Republicans are looking to Gov. Greg Abbott to do the same there. According to the latest RealClearPolitics average, Ducey leads Democrat David Garcia by a 13.4-point margin.
“I take the responsibility seriously,” Ducey said. “I think especially somebody who’s an incumbent and is at the top of the ticket, I not only want to get over the finish line, but I want to get other good people over the finish line with me.”
With election day only three days out, both Sinema and McSally are hopscotching the state in the final hours. The Arizona Democrat is slated to campaign in the Phoenix area Sunday and Monday before spending most of Tuesday in Tucson. She will watch the returns come through in Phoenix Tuesday night.
As for McSally, she’s expected to campaign predominantly in Prescott and Flagstaff on Sunday and Monday, respectively.
